Rehashing the primary

I don’t have to do it anymore. The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel mixed it all up this morning. This column by Laurel Walker lays out some Waukesha County basics. I’m not sure the analysis is dead on, though. Here’s a spreadsheet I had started with Waukesha numbers by district. The worksheet is really rough, and the Republican votes are off by a couple of dozen from the MJS article, but if it’s of interest I’m glad to share.

The front page of the paper rants about how far Wisconsin has gone to the Democratic side. I think there has been a shift to the left again, but I don’t think that shift is as pronounced as Tuesday’s numbers show. The primary vote was a jumble.

It looks like 13 other states have open primaries. Only Wisconsin and Idaho have both an open primary and same day voter registration. Idaho’s primary is very late – not held until May. Wisconsin’s February date, open primary status, and same day registration make for an unusual set of returns. Add to that one party with a tight decision and another that’s already made, and I say anything goes.

I wouldn’t take the claims of a Democratic landslide in Wisconsin to the bank yet. I think we’re still a little more purple than either party wants to acknowledge.

Comments

  1. I think you may be right about the purple. I voted against Hil-Bil, but am undecided for November.

    In 2000, while the pundits said the country was deeply divided, I thought we were deeply ambivalent. In 2004 we were deeply divided, but neither candidate inspired rapture. This year we are divided all sorts of ways, but we have a host of good candidates. Much as a loathe the thought of another Clinton administration, I have no doubt Hillary is highly competent. We could do a lot worse than any of the big three.

  2. Dave Frank says:

    The real question is were the votes for Obama and Hillary sincere, or were they Republican voters playing defense? We won’t know until the general election but my guess is that Waukesha, and especially Brookfield, will solidly fall in line for McCain come November.

  3. I’d say that’s a fair assumption, Dave.

    I’m not sure what the votes were saying, but I know there were a lot of different strategies out there.

  4. Polling is showing Hillary losing to McCain in Wisconsin by 10+ points and Obama beating him by 13+ points.

    I think you’re right about Waukesha County, Cindy, but as for Wisconsin as a whole I don’t see a scenario where John McCain beats Obama in Wisconsin. With Hillary, I start to worry.

    Obama puts states like Arkansa, Missouri, Kansa, Idaho, Utah, and Alaska, New Mexico in to play.