McCain, Obama: Still polling tightly

Rassmussen has the race within 1 point. Obama’s margin widens when leaning voters are tallied.

Gallup says Obama is up 2.

Comments

  1. **comment edited for length/commercial content –Cindy**

    The McCain/Palin ticket wins 49.7% support, compared to 45.9% backing for the Obama/Biden ticket, this latest online survey shows. Another 4.4% either favored someone else or were unsure.

    The Ticket Horserace
    9-5/6
    8-29/30

    McCain-Palin
    49.7%
    47.1%

    Obama-Biden
    45.9%
    44.6%

    Others/Not sure
    4.4%
    8.3%

    In the two-way contest in which just McCain and Obama were mentioned in the question, the result was slightly different, with McCain leading, 48.8% to 45.7%.

    One-on-One Horserace
    9-5/6

    McCain
    48.8%

    Obama
    45.7%

    Others/Not sure
    5.5%

    In a Zogby Interactive survey conducted last weekend, just after the McCain announcement that Palin would join his ticket, McCain Palin won 47.1% support, while Obama/Biden won 44.6% support.

    The interactive survey of 2,312 likely voters nationwide was conducted Sept. 5-6, 2008, and carries a margin of error of +/- 2.1 percentage points.

    Pollster John Zogby: “Clearly, Palin is helping the McCain ticket. She has high favorability numbers, and has unified the Republican Party. The striking thing here in this poll is that McCain has pulled ahead among Catholics by double-digits. On the other hand, Palin is not helping with likely voting women who are not aligned with either political party. The undecided independent women voters decreased this week from 15% to 7%, but those women went to Obama. Palin is also helping among men, conservatives, notably with suburban and rural voters, and with frequent Wal-Mart shoppers, who tend to be “values” voters who like a good value for their money.”

    McCain’s favorability rating increased from 50% favorable last week to 57% favorable now, a significant jump that indicates the GOP convention was a success. Among independent voters, 61% now have a favorable impression of him, compared to just 49% who said the same a week ago.

    Nearly half – 49% – said they had a favorable opinion of Barack Obama, while 50% they had a negative impression of him. Among independent voters, 47% gave him favorable marks, compared to 46% who said the same thing last week.

    Among the vice presidential candidates, 54% said they now hold a favorable view of Palin, while 42% hold an unfavorable view. While 49% have a favorable opinion of Joe Biden, 47% hold an unfavorable view of him.

    Just one week ago, 23% told Zogby that they did not know enough about Palin to make a judgment about whether they held a favorable or unfavorable view of her – but this most recent survey shows just 4% were unfamiliar with her – another indication that likely voters paid attention to the GOP convention this week, which won the highest television viewership numbers ever earned by an American political convention.

    -Z-

    Zogby International was the most accurate pollster in every one of the last three presidential election cycles, and continues to perfect its telephone and interactive methodologies using its own live operator, in-house call center in Upstate New York, and its own secure servers for its online polling projects.

    In the 2004 presidential election, not only was Zogby’s telephone polling right on the money, its interactive polling also nailed the election as well. In 2006, the Zogby Interactive online polling was on the money in 17 of 18 U.S. Senate races (the 18th was within the margin of error) a record of accuracy that is unmatched in the industry – as no other leading firm even attempts to poll statewide political races using an interactive methodology for public consumption.

    For a complete methodological statement on this survey, please visit:

    http://www.zogby.com/methodology/readmeth.dbm?ID=1332

    (9/6/2008)

  2. Patriot, thanks for posting the Zogby release. I do forget to include them. Some people get upset if I do because they don’t value the methodology. (I edited the rest of the cut and paste for length.)

  3. Do you really think people actually follow these polls. Mccain 189 in electoral votes,obama 243, that matters.

  4. Sharon, you can bet that the politicians follow these polls. I agree with you, that the electoral college is what matters. Yet, I still hear the left lament that Gore won the popular vote and should therefore be POTUS. One can’t have it both ways.

    Myself, I’d like to retain the electoral system while reforming it. Hee I live in CA with a huge anount of electoral votes, yet McCain doesn’t even campaign here, hence CA gets forgotten in a national election. The only thing we’re good for is campaign money. MY vote will neer get reflected as it’s a forgone conclusion that Obama will get ALL of CA’s electoral votes, regardless of how many more votes he gets than McCain. Am I being disenfranchised?

    I’d rather see a system, where if a candidate got 2/3, then all electoral votes would go to him. If no one got 2/3, then the votes would be divided up (likely along Congressional districts since that’s the basis for determining state electoral votes).

  5. Oh Sharon, you might want to review your poll data as well. The polls I find show the electoral poll much much closer.

    The latest numbers from the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator show Obama leading in states with 193 Electoral College votes and McCain ahead in states with 183 Electoral College votes. Previously, Obama had enjoyed a 210–165 advantage.

    Currently, states with 135 Electoral College votes are leaning slightly in one way or the other, and three states with a total of 27 votes — Colorado, Nevada and Virginia — are pure toss-ups.

    Source: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/election_2008_electoral_college_update