Polling shows Obama with lead inside margin of error

It was a nice convention bounce while it lasted.

Gallup shows Obama up by two with registered voters. It was a large sample, so error is only +/- 2.

Rasmussen has McCain up by one with likely voters. The sample was smaller but runs for 3 days, so error is again +/- 2.

Reuters/Zogby have Obama up by two with a smaller sample of likely voters providing a margin of +/- 3.1.

They also does the real-world match up between Obama and McCain including Barr and Nader. In that survey, Obama and McCain are tied at 45 percent each.

Comments

  1. Are Barr and Nader statistically significant? In how many states can either expect to be on the ballot?

  2. Grumps, it looks like Nader (who draws Obama votes) is pushing for 45 states. Barr (who draws McCain votes) is looking for 48.

    But then you could have found that out just like I did, right?

  3. Most of the polls to date have been within the margin of error, so I haven’t paid much attention to them. I think many individual states’ polls are the same.

    I don’t think either side thinks they or the other side is going to run away with this thing.

  4. I do think that if the economy continues to have bad news like we have lately, the Republicans could lose big.

  5. Here’s a nice one from Rasmussen,

    McCain leads 58% to 38% among those who regularly shop at Wal-Mart while Obama leads 61% to 36% among those who don’t frequent the retail giant.

  6. Dean – I’m pretty bummed about that timing, too. I’m also not wild about the candidates’ response. “I feel your pain” was way overused a few campaigns ago!

  7. “McCain leads 58% to 38% among those who regularly shop at Wal-Mart while Obama leads 61% to 36% among those who don’t frequent the retail giant.”

    Imho – This indicates that conservatives are frugal and not swayed by image and indicates the opposite for libs.