Has it occurred to anyone that there is a likely correlation to ACORN registering voters for Democrats at an alarming rate – sometimes one person is registered 72 times – and the fact that Obama is up in the polls for registered voters?
Think…think…
That’s right. There’s a higher probability of someone being chosen to poll when they’ve register 72 times than when they’ve registered once.
It’s why Obama is worried. Those numbers may not be real.
14 responses so far ↓
1 J. Strupp // Oct 20, 2008 at 10:20 am
…and the U.S. moon landings were filmed in Utah too.
2 Cindy Kilkenny // Oct 20, 2008 at 10:35 am
I’m missing your point here Josh.
3 Randy in Richmond // Oct 20, 2008 at 11:38 am
The only poll the pollsters want to get correct are the few days before the election because that’s what they will be measured by. I’m aware of the Bradley effect but more familiar with the Wilder effect here in Virginia. Wilder (who is black) was elected Governor here in 1989 (I voted for him). On the last polls taken before the election Wilder was ahead by 9 points and had previously led by up to 15 points. He won by 0.5 points. Today Obama leads McCain in the polls in Virginia by 4-7 points. I can’t say who will win but I predict it will be less than 2% one way or the other.
4 Joe // Oct 20, 2008 at 11:45 am
Obama isn’t worried. He’s just telling his supporters not to get cocky and act like they’ve won before they really have.
5 J. Strupp // Oct 20, 2008 at 11:54 am
They are both conspiracy theories.
6 Cindy Kilkenny // Oct 20, 2008 at 11:55 am
It’s not a conspiracy theory, Josh. It’s a study of probability and polling – statistical analysis.
—
Joe – why the heck do you keep posting from school. I certainly don’t want Elmbrook down my neck for something new! Stop it.
7 Alexander // Oct 20, 2008 at 3:55 pm
“Those numbers may not be real.” – DUUUUUDE!!! You just made me smile
8 folkbum // Oct 20, 2008 at 5:59 pm
Cindy, that’s not how polls are conducted. Polling outfits do not buy lists of registered voters to call from states or localities; they buy lists of phone numbers from vendors who specialize in that sort of thing. Then they ask a series of screening questions–including “Are you registered to vote?” and other questions to determine “likely voter” status as well. Plus, pollsters ask demographic questions, too, like party ID, race, sex, age, and so on, so they can be sure to get the right sample in any given poll.
In other words, whether you’re registered once, 72 times, or not at all, your odds of being polled are about the same–assuming you have a working phone number.
9 Waukesha Mom // Oct 20, 2008 at 6:09 pm
Shhhhh, Folkbum – don’t confuse ‘em with facts. They get all surly!
10 Cindy Kilkenny // Oct 20, 2008 at 6:42 pm
Folkbum, really? So they’re even less reliable than I’d thought? After all, anyone can claim to be a registered voter.
That’s assuming you are correct. I took a class on this one semester – I thought I remembered differently than dialing random numbers on this one.
11 Cindy Kilkenny // Oct 20, 2008 at 6:49 pm
Folkbum – I found this.
“Some researchers use official lists of registered voters as a sample frame, while others use RDD [random-digit-dial] samples combined with respondent reports of voter registration status.”
We could both be right.
12 Dean // Oct 20, 2008 at 7:25 pm
Some people think that folks lie to pollsters. One being famously touted is the “Bradley effect.” But polls have been off even this late in a campaign. In fact Ann Coulter’s latest column lists those campaigns and some polls that were seriously off.
Not that Waukesha mom or folkbum would ever believe Ann Coulter.
13 Cindy Kilkenny // Oct 20, 2008 at 7:32 pm
Whoa! that’s good. The facts are the facts – I don’t think anyone can change those.
Here’s the article.
14 Randy in Richmond // Oct 22, 2008 at 7:05 pm
I’ve never been much on polls but they are interesting to follow. Today, looking at ten of the top pollsters you can take your pick. The Obama leads are as follows: +1, +2, +4, +5, +6, +8, +9, +10. (All in the last week)
How scientific is this?