On the first day he’s elected…

Sung to the tune The Twelve Days of Christmas:

On the first day he’s elected, Obama gave to me – A 486 point drop in the Dow.

I wonder what we get today?

Comments

  1. J. Strupp says:

    Guess you aren’t a big believer the Obama election being priced into the market ahead of time?

    Especially when futures gave Obama above an 80% chance of election in the last couple weeks.

    When the DOW takes it in the shorts today, it won’t have anything to do with the new numbers on unemployment claims right?

  2. John Foust says:

    All the other drops are whose fault, then?

  3. Tinkerbell says:

    Hard to have priced the Obama election into the markets ahead of time because his lead in accurate polls was rather close to the margin of error, and McCain was said to be closing the gap during the past 5 days or so.

    IF “Hope Won”, as Oprah’s T-shirt declared yesterday, why are employers laying off? Why are they not anticipating growth in their own companies and across the ecomony? Why are they not hiring quickly, before other growth companies scoop up the best qualified workers in our pool of available workers?

    Do you see this as unrelated? Random?

    Turn-about is fair play. It is also karma. As much as Obama blamed all our country’s ills on Bush (even effects of policies put in place by Clinton), Obama may now reap the credit/discredit for what resonates throughout our land. This is what he has set in play.

  4. John Foust says:

    Sorry, Tink, I have a brain and I’m gonna use it. Correlation does not imply causation. If you think you’ve figured out the market drops and rises, you’d be rich and not revealing your secret analysis skills on blogs.

  5. J. Strupp says:

    John, I should have worded my last comment like your previous comment. I completely agree with your statement:

    “correlation does not imply causation”.

    My comment was based on a previous blog entry from Cindy exploring the possibility that the market has dropped considerably in the run up to the election because wall street is pricing Obama’s election into the market ahead of time. In this turbulant time, I don’t think anyone can effectively calculate Obama’s election impact on the market. 400 point moves on the DOW seem to be the norm these days.

    Tinkerbell. I don’t really know how to answer. Oprah T-Shirts and karma are not my specialty.

  6. Tinkerbell says:

    Correlation does imply causation, but does not prove it. Correlation may be considered as the basis of a scientific hypothesis, which will be tested by various means until one is satisfied that it has been proved. Time will tell. There are other factors to be considered.

    Dear John, Stocks is not the only place to invest, and I moved my $$$ some time ago. But your attempt to dis me has been noted. Personally I feel the get-rich-quick-in-the-stock-market plans, even when successful are not ethical and contribute to economic uncertainty. There is a balance between personal gain and ethics, morals, values. Money does not trump all. For many, it is character.

    To gain a broad understanding of the many people we share this planet with, you may want to acquaint yourself with pop culture such as Oprah and karma. No need to specialize in it, just not dis it when others speak in those terms.

  7. Good grief you guys. It’s set to the tune of the 12 days of Christmas! This is not cutting edge analysis.

  8. John Foust says:

    My karma just ran over your dogma. When someone says “turnabout is fair play”, then mentions karma, they usually take a drag on their cigarette and add “what goes around comes around.”

    “Karma” is Sanskrit for “action,” what a person does. Secondarily, it can also mean the fruit of that action. So tell me, among all that’s happened in the world in the last few months, what did Obama do to become the primary cause for the market to drop?

  9. Randy in Richmond says:

    Certainly correlation does imply causation but the key, unknown factor is time, or timing. Why is card counting not allowed for blackjack in today’s casinos? If your hypothesis were true the casinos wouldn’t care and would allow this system to be used. The stock market used to be a purer example of this but day traders and the like have muddied the waters. Having an Obama in power, with his histoy and Robinhood economics, I believe, lowers the risk level for commerce at all levels and will in the long run stiffle our economy. Thus, correlation drives causation.
    And a partridge in a pear tree…

  10. Tinkerbell says:

    Dear John,
    karma running over dogma… anything like a kar running over a dog? LOL! Clever, but dogma is a religious belief and I had not introduced that, not even as it relates to this conversation. The Golden Rule may be apropos.

    Whether a person smokes, or whether I smoke is also not germain to this issue but may be seen as argumentative – that is, changing the subject to avoid agreement – or to stimulate disagreement on other issues.

    Everyone has a different knowledge base and the wise will attempt to build a common knowledge base listening to others and learning from others and sharing what one believes to be true… to aid in showing respect. Both the common knowledge and the respect given will generally facilitate communication among well intentioned people. I use many touchpoints to items of interest in order help facilitate communication. This is not something I say with any superiority for we can all choose to be wise, to compare facts known to us and to build a common knowledge base.

    To address what I see as the essence of your questions-

    Do I believe that there has been some action on the part of Obama which may cause the stock market to respond negatively upon his prevailing in the general election? Yes.

    Do I believe Obama’s actions are the primary cause that the stock market went down upon the news that Obama was President-elect? I believe that may be your over-statement, until the test of time is applied and other factors considered. However I believe the idea is of merit and worthy of discussion.

    What do I think the actions on the part of Obama may be, which may have negative impact on the American stock market? More sells than buys in the stock market may occur for many reasons detailed by books, infomercials, and college courses. However the nightly news generally states that “consumer confidence is down”.

    Why might consumer confidence be down?

    MANY dollars were infused into the economy to fund the election: advertising, travel, communication, etc. That temporary bump to the economy has now ended.

    What are plans of this President-elect to grow the economy? Did his acceptance speech share these plans in a way that inspired consumer confidence in you? Are you spending more now, or less?

    Are companies in your area announcing plans to expand under Obama?

    Would foreign revelry over this election be a concern to investors who may (rightfully or wrongfully) wonder about the strength of our economy in light of such foreign revelry? Do foreigners typically celebrate a strengthening of the American dollar? No, the opposite is true.

    Remember the stock market has become a reflection of confidence. How confident are you in the movement of our economy?

    Have the Dems and the media reached out to embrace the whole of the country or do we hear Republican jabs? Race-based praise? Do we hear RobinHood-like comments about redistributing wealth and no revealed plans on how this is to be accomplished? Do we see Obama redistributing his wealth? During his acceptance speech, when he announced plans to get a puppy for his girls, he might have also seized the moment to acknowledge there are many who have been unable to keep their pets due to storms, displacement from thier homes, job loss, foreclosure, etc and announce a generous donation to animal shelters. Not using the stage to promote benefits for his family exclusively but to reassure the nation that he cares about Main Street, that we are all in this together. This would be an example of creating unity around a positive… rather than creating unity against a common enemy.

    Practicing the creation of unity around positives may inspire confidence.

  11. Hey, you Obama-lovers…the market is telling you that it doesn’t like the results of the election. Any fool knows that! The market is telling you that the anti-business, high-tax, pro-labor Dems will be bad for economics! It’s that simple even if you don’t like to hear it!

  12. Don Quixote says:

    Wait, I thought he took office in January?

  13. Why yes, young learner, he did. But he was ELECTED in November.

    Time to work on those reading comprehension skills.

  14. Don Quixote says:

    Wait, he had presidential power in November?
    Enough to affect the DOW by 486 points?
    As a senator…

  15. HisTory BUFF says:

    I could not agree more with Don Quixote’s outstanding intellect. It is not Obama’s fault he was elected president and left to clean up the economic mess created by the former president. This situation is comparable to Hoover’s rise to presidency in 1929. He inherited the economic crisis, and historians today now regard him with increased respect than people did at the time, realizing that the Great Depression was not his fault. Perhaps in time, Cindy, you too will see that Obama was simply elected president at the most unlucky and messy time possible. He is challenged to restore our harshly bashed image, and he is doing it with strength and grace. I respect him and wish him luck with this most demanding task.

  16. Children, children. Don, I’m sorry if I hurt your feelings. Mr. Buff (yes, folks, separate IP’s so I’ll treat it as unique), I suspect when you have two dimes to rub together you’ll understand the markets move as much on sentiment and rumor than reality.

    So yes, enough to affect the DOW by 486 points. And yes, that drop on that day was absolutely his to own.

  17. Extremely Liberal Dot Com says:

    kill me.

  18. Don the liberal – we kind of have a rule around here that you stick to one name. If you want to stay, you’ll need to choose your favorite soon.

  19. Don Quixote says:

    Look, you run a blog, we already know you can handle a computer. No need to show off.
    I apologize for using the same wireless Internet router as another. If you would notice this is the third different IP address I have used now. From now on I am The Picnic.

  20. The Picnic says:

    With that being said, no matter who wins someone will be upset, all electoral results will have been negatively affected. Obama cannot possibly be blaimed for that.

  21. Hey, look! Wallace M. has that same IP, too. Are you sure you aren’t related to that other master of multiple personalties, Obama Mama?

    I can keep up with you, but it’s really not worth the effort. I’d bet we’ve just about exhausted your attention span and you’ll be off to the next thing soon enough.

  22. The Picnic says:

    When you got two benjis to rub together then we can talk economy.
    I’m 42. If I mature any more I’ll get prostate cancer.

  23. You learned how to use the edit feature, too!

    PS. Prostate cancer’s not funny. If you were really 42 you’d know that.

    Good lord you must be a site by now with both feet firmly placed in your mouth.

  24. HisTory BUFF says:

    so wait, let me get this straight, if mccain was elected the day before, the DOW wouldn’t have dropped????

  25. HisTory BUFF says:

    Actually i just decided that history buff is done. I came across this page while googling something else and wish I never had. This site is an absurd waste of time and energy. It is not worth my brain cells to argue over matters that are out of our hands. I personally hated George W. Bush. However, I did not waste my life with an obsessive webpage bashing him. I coped, tried my best to make effective changes in my community, and continue my life hoping for the best in the future.

    I was listening to NPR the other morning, and there was an interesting piece on people who are against Obama. A quote that stuck with me is: “To wish that your President will fail, is to wish that your country will fail.” There is truth in that. If you have such irrational issues with the government, why waste hours a day on your blog instead of going out and doing something about it? The world has enough gossipy housewives.

  26. Well, we’re not ever going to know for sure, are we?

    I’m not the only one that thinks the November 5th drop was Obama related. Perhaps a clever scholar such as yourself could do a little research. Then you can come back and proclaim that I can’t produce an original idea!

  27. Well thanks for the compliment. It’s not every day I’m called a gossipy housewife.

    Have a good life.