The map of last night’s Republican returns

From the MJS:

I think this map confirms my idea that we’ll be seeing a lot of the White House stumping for Barrett. He wins if Milwaukee turns out Democrats in big numbers.

That would also directly benefit Russ Feingold. He’s clever to stay off the stage right now. He can reap the rewards without any of the work.


  1. Interesting map, but do you really think that just because Neumann is no longer in the race, all the “greens” will let Barrett win?

  2. No. If you go to the Politco maps you can see the numbers. Heck, one county didn’t have any Republican votes at all!

  3. Yeah, I don’t understand what you’re trying to say here either. Are you saying Nuemann voters are not voting for Walker in the general? How does this map mean that high Dem turnout in Milwaukee means a Barrett and Feingold win?

    I guess I just don’t follow how a primary map tells us anything about the general.

    And I don’t think any GOP math would ever include Menominee County. Don’t Dems win that county with like 80%?

  4. Ok, my bad. I used some assumed knowledge in addition to this map, mainly that rural areas went Neumann and the suburban rings, usually Republican, went to Walker. The turnout was very high in the suburban rings – those voters are captured and counted in this round. One might not assume numbers to get much higher for Walker there. The rural areas will convert the Neumann voters to Walker voters, but rural areas are less populated, and the numbers will be fewer. I doubt those rural areas will be able to outweigh the onslaught of Dem voters expected from the population centers. Had the rural areas been pink/red (Walker votes) then it would show the power of the party in rural Wisconsin. This shows rural Wisconsin doesn’t feel the same party allegiance or duty.

    I think the green counties are ripe for the Democrat picking.

  5. Ah, I see. Personally, I think the Neumann folks will vote for Walker in pretty good numbers, too. I also think there are a couple more things to consider when looking at this map. First is the Ron Johnson operation (with national help) that will turnout GOP voters in the rural areas and all over the state, too. Second, there are going to be independent voters and others who didn’t vote in the primary that I’m guessing are going Republican this year. While this primary may have been higher than normal, it still paled in comparison to turnout in a general election. And third, I think some, maybe not a lot, but some of Neumann votes were Dems crossing over.

  6. Cindy. You are correct. It is an urban-rural split. I am in rural-ish area. Not the party allegiance influence the further you get from urban centers. Stubborn, independent farm stock. 🙂

    Barrett should take note. He will get the union/Dem support in the city centers and can easily pick up the no-nonsense thinkers out in rural spans. (You know, the places you drove by on Monday driving your LaCrosse route and northward.)

    This is not a slam dunk for Walker.

  7. I also think Ron Johnson won’t be able to pull it off, but don’t tell anyone. 😉

    Wisconsin is bluer than it was ten years ago. It’s going to take more than wishful thinking to move that over to red. If the national organization sees us as a toss up instead of leaning Republican, they might spend elsewhere.

    Fox has Johnson as a Tea Party candidate on their teaser just now. Like I didn’t see that coming.

  8. I do think its harder to take out an incumbent, even this year, then to win an open seat. And I don’t think Walker necessarily has this won. But I was curious about out how the primary results helped show something about the general.

    I do think that Walker having won so many elections in Milwaukee County helps becaue he draws more from the Dem base than anyone else we’ve had in awhile. Sure Barrett is from there, too, but they only have votes to lose in Milwaukee. I don’t think they could get any more.

  9. And I think it’s a poor assumption that Walker will draw from the Dem base when there’s a truly viable Democrat as a candidate.

    You don’t think there will be any more Dem votes in Milwaukee County than there was last night?

  10. Good golly, Miss Cindy. Another thing we are in agreement on – I seriously question Johnson pulling a ‘W’.

    But, then, I thought Neumann had a chance. Well until the last 72 hour negative push by the combined forces. Not sure that group will be as effective for Johnson/agin Feingold.

  11. Yeah, but there will be more Republicans than showed up in this primary, too. I think GOP turnout will be relatively higher than Dem turnout (relatively – there will still be more Dems voting in Milwaukee County).

    And then there are those independents that make or break every election. I think someone like Walker who people have been voting into office there beforehand means he has a better opportunity to take votes away from Dems in their neighborhood.

    I still think Walker loses Milwaukee County, but limiting his loss there helps. I think he is more likely to take votes from Barrett than Barrett is to take votes from Walker. Dems peak in Milwaukee every election so they have nowhere to go but down. And, its not going to be a good Dem election year in general.

  12. Well there we’ll disagree. If Obama works his magic, the firestorm he created in November 2008 will be repeated. It doesn’t matter which county Walker wins or loses. A vote is a vote.

    Have you met Tom Barrett? I think there’s a really good chance he’ll charm voters in ways you never expected. It’s not going to be a good Dem year in general, but if any state will buck the trend, I’d lay odds on Wisconsin.

  13. Right but if you do fine in areas you are supposed to do fine, and do a little better than normal in areas you aren’t supposed to do well, overall you end up with more votes.

    I would absolutely disagree that there is any Obama magic to happen this year compared to ’08. Do you think Obama will go anywhere in the state outside Milwaukee or Madison? My guess is no. Or if he does, neither Barrett nor Feingold will be with him. Last thing they need is any ad showing them standing in the same frame as the President. They’ll probalby ask him not to mention their names, too.

    I have met both Walker and Barrett. Both seem equally charming to me. However, I gave up trying to guess how I’d vote if I truly had an open mind, though, because I admit I don’t. I just can’t vote Democrat. 🙂

  14. I have met Barrett a few times, and i’m working on his campaign. You’re right, Cindy. He’s very charming. Labor is really pushing hard in this one in ways that the public doesn’t see. Especially coordinating campaigning.

    And Feingold’s ace-in-the-hole has remained the same since his election to the senate–his base is ferociously strong. People who like Feingold LOVE him. He’s made my job easy.

    “Wait, now which one is he?
    “Do you remember the Patriot Act?”
    “Oh yea! He’s the only guy who read the thing and voted against it.”
    “Yep, that’s our Russ and he represents Wisconsin.”
    “Yeah, sure i’ll vote for him.”
    *rinse and repeat*

  15. Yep. That’s why I’m not planning on betting against him. I’ll vote for Johnson, but still see Feingold keeping his spot.

  16. Cindy,

    What’s your take on Walker vs. Johnson. If you were told tomorrow that one of them will win and one will lose, who would be who?

    Personally I think Johnson will fair better…. I see more Johnson/Barrett voters than Walker/Feingold voters…. do you agree?

  17. Ryan, I’m seeing the real possibility of Barrett and Feingold.

    If I had to pick, though, I’d pick Walker/Feingold.

  18. The smart choice if I were you. A senator is one vote of 100. A Governor controls a lot more.

  19. Checking back in on some predictions. It seems both Walker and Johnson are in good shape and there has been no Obama magic to speak of anywhere. I would say its been close to zero White House stumping in WI, too.