Johnson pulls more than 50% in Rasmussen poll


The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters shows Johnson picking up 51% support, while Feingold earns the vote from 44%. One percent (1%) of voters prefer some other candidate, and four percent (4%) remain undecided.

They still call Wisconsin a toss-up.

Using these numbers, even if all the undecided and other candidate voters went for Feingold, Johnson would win. The 7 points are also outside the margin of error.

I said the other day the losing side of the Wisconsin primary would likely send their allegiance to the Johnson campaign. Guess it’s close to time to make that happen.


  1. Jonas Wilkerson says:

    This is very interesting movement in Ron Johnson’s favor. We haven’t seen any real movement since Rasmussen first polled this race in the spring. It will be interesting to see what kind of movement we’ll see in the Scott Walker/Tom Barrett race for governor. While Walker is coming off of a brusing Republican Primary election, I suspect he will maintain his lead against Barrett and it may have grown.

  2. Listening to Sykes this a.m. (and I haven’t read the poll) he said that the poll indicated that 80% of the voters had said they ‘made up their mind’ on this election. So that would say to me that even thought it’s 51/44, there’s 15 points there of folks who indicated a likely candidate, but must not be firm in their decision. Maybe that’s the reason it’s still a toss up. There’s 20 total points in ‘play’, not 5.

  3. Ah. I admit I didn’t read very deeply.

  4. randy in Richmond says:

    I found what you heard on the radio interesting because I can’t get my head around those percentages. What you heard is exactly correct. I have always assumed a likely voter is one who says he is going to vote. Then how can 80% of those expressing they will vote for a candidate say they’ve already made up their minds ? It should be 100% .
    So I went to to the actual poll questions and there is not a question I see that can be used to determine the 80%.

    An additional question not mentioned to you on the radio I think is revealing. Feingold has a 28% very unfavorable rating while Johnson’s is 19%. This does not look good for Feingold at this point because these voters don’t usually change their minds. Also interesting that 45% think it a good idea to repeal Health Care and 27% that it is a bad idea.

  5. Sometimes someone like the radio guy Charlie Sykes will have access to “crosstab” information that’s more detailed. I don’t know if that’s the case here, but it might explain things.

  6. randy in Richmond says:

    Maybe so but that appears to be for members only. I’m sure there’s an explanation but at this point I don’t see it.

  7. Probably people who will vote for another candidate. Libertarian, Green, etc.

    And the health care repeal isn’t quite that simple. There is polling out now that shows when the voter is informed that repealing will take away protections for pre-existing conditions, support for repeal drops to negligible levels.

  8. Ok, so here is the exact quote from the poll -“This is the first Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 survey in Wisconsin to include leaners. Leaners are those who initially indicate no preference for either of the candidates but answer a follow-up question and say they are leaning towards a particular candidate. From this point forward, Rasmussen Reports considers results with leaners the primary indicator of the race.  When leaners are excluded from the totals, Johnson leads Feingold 50% to 43%. In late August, Johnson and Feingold were tied in results without leaners. Prior to the latest poll, support for Johnson ranged from 44% to 48% in surveys since February. In those same surveys, Feingold had consistently picked up 46% of the vote.  More than 80% of the supporters for both candidates say they’ve already made up their minds how they will vote in November.”

    So if you take out leaners Johnson is still up by 7. But I  still confused by the 80% of supporters have made up their mind. 

    Were all those supporters ‘likely voters’?  If so are they saying 20% of those who said they’d vote for Feingold or Johnson aren’t sure?

  9. randy in Richmond says:

    Conversely I suspect a poll that informs the voter that repealing the Health Care law will not remove the pre-existing condition protections, would show a much higher polling approval than the present law. In fact, this is exactly what Republicans have proposed.

    Polls of any kind that cherry pick pros and cons of an issue can be made to give any results desired.

  10. I think Rasmussen only polls likely voters. It’s what differentiates them.

  11. Isn’t Rasmussen skewed GOP? Need to take that into consideration on the numbers and the ‘leaning’.

    And, Sykes persistently will put his own slant on all things Charlie. He is proudly the King of Opinion.

    Unfavorable didn’t mean much in the governor’s primary race; Walker is the highest in unfavorable.

    The full court press is not on yet, this is an early in the game. Although I think Johnson has the national trend to boot incumbents going in his favor, Feingold is viewed as a renegade. If he plays that up he could move voters.

  12. Sykes is noting this morning that Public Policy polling according to Daily Kos will release tomorrow a poll that shows Johnson further ahead of Feingold than Rasmussen did. Not good when a lefty blog confirms the leads and it’s larger!

  13. BDad. Here is where Sykes pulled his information:

    It appears it is due to ‘a “massive” enthusiasm gap between Democrats and Republicans.’

    So, I wonder if a more hotly contested governor’s race between Barrett and Walker will bring out the voters, up the enthusiasm for the Democrats? How does a party counteract such ‘enthusiasm’?