My complex mathematical model says… it is close

So I am showing my nerdy side tonight…. I built a spreadsheet tracking how Prosser is doing county by county compared to how Walker did.  In most of the smaller counties, Prosser is doing significantly worse than Walker.  But he is actually doing better than Walker in Waukesha and (believe it or not) Dane counties, which is why is he ever so slightly ahead at the moment.  So the $64,000 question is whether or not those results will continue.  In other words, did Prosser genuinely do better in these counties than Walker, or does it just appear that way so far because the wards that have been counted in those 2 counties are the ones more favorable to conservatives.

If it is the former, Prosser should eek out a very close win.  If things start getting worse than the current pace (34% in Dane and 75% in Waukesha), Kloppenburg will almost certainly overtake him.

 

Comments

  1. You are such a great addition to the blog. 🙂

  2. W00t! Spreadsheets!

  3. Oh, and I claim those spreadsheets as property of the blog. You are absolutely obligated to share in the end.

  4. Ryan Morgan says:

    Haha, I don’t think I can share because it is such a quick and dirty analysis that I would probably have my Fellowship in the Society of Actuaries revoked. Among my ridiculous assumptions are that the mix of voters by county will be identical to 2010 and that every ward has the same number of voters. (So Marathon county is worth almost as much as Waukesha).

    So it is not the most precise, but it should give some pointers in the right direction. Hopefully. 🙂

  5. Well can you change it so that Prosser wins? Thanks.

  6. Ryan Morgan says:

    It just occurred to me that to the union bosses, the question I posed in the original post is worth far more than $64,000……

  7. Ryan Morgan says:

    And the erosion is setting in….. Prosser is down to 31% in Dane County and 73% in Waukesha. Not a good sign.

    On the plus side, Prosser is at 41% in Milwaukee county relative to 38% for Walker.

  8. Where are you getting the county returns?

  9. Ryan Morgan says:
  10. Ryan Morgan says:

    OUCH! About a quarter of Dane county just came in at once and it knocked Prosser down to 27% in the county and behind in the overall vote total. Now he is doing almost 5 points worse than Walker there.

  11. Oh my goodness did I lead you astray on the Elmbrook vote. Only 38 votes for Kormanik from Brookfield. Ouch!

  12. It’s just proving to be a painful evening.

  13. Ryan Morgan says:

    Prosser is up to 44% in Milwaukee county. That could be good news, but I fear that what it really means is that there is big chunk of inner-city votes that will hit similar to what we just saw in Dane.

    But on the other hand, only a quarter of Waukesha county has been counted….. still stand by my prediction that it will be close. 🙂

  14. Ryan Morgan says:

    Haha, well I will only be mad at you if Schultz beat Wilson by less than 38. 🙂

  15. Well, I can’t find numbers from Elm Grove, but it looks like I’m safe, then.

    I suppose if she really wanted it, she would have gotten out there sooner. I’m still ticked Wilson will be rewarded for her flip flop and that we’re going to be stuck paying for 4K.

    But you get what you vote for, don’t you?

  16. Ryan Morgan says:

    I can’t call it for Klop yet, but we are starting to get to the point where she is the clear favorite.

  17. This song is coming to mind tonight given my voting choices:

  18. I am pretty much calling it done. That last update was a hard slap. I think that means it’s bedtime for me.

    Why is it when all the dust settles I think I’ll be most disappointed in Scott Walker. There was such potential, but clearly he’s having trouble managing the challenge. It feels like there are bodies everywhere the last few weeks.

  19. Sponge Bob reports Klops margin just shrunk to 1,676

  20. Thank you Sponge Bob. Against my better judgement, I’m still watching.

  21. Ryan Morgan says:

    Don’t go to bed yet Cindy. This is back to being close to a 50/50 tossup. Prosser really held his own in Milwaukee county with only a handful of wards left there. That is what is keeping him in it.

  22. But I’m so tired! This is probably the latest I’ve been up since my surgery.

  23. Ryan Morgan says:

    Klop is up by about 4000 votes.

    I think Prosser can make up 20000 more in Waukesha county, 10000 more in Washington, and 2000 in Waupaca. But Klop will make up 20000 in Dane, 2000 in Eau Claire, and 6000 in Milwaukee. Which leaves us at…. a dead heat.

  24. So who’s beginning to feel like certain counties are withholding their results for drama?

  25. lawnmower says:

    Waffling on the part of the voters? I know several voters who were contacted and convinced to change their minds out of fear Schultz would win. Persistence pays, especially in campaigning.

  26. The Lorax says:

    My thought, exactly, Cindy.

  27. Maybe. Really, though, it was the simple fact that she didn’t do the work. My heart was behind her but in the end I had about 20 minutes into the campaign.

    C’est la vie.

  28. Prosser just jumped ahead, but according to the coverage on TMJ4, Racine is only at 84% reporting…
    Now Prosser’s lead shrunk to 399 votes at 93% reporting.
    Argh.
    Make that Prosser leads by 6,510 with 94% reporting.

  29. Ryan Morgan says:

    Most of the rest of Dane County is in and Prosser still leads. I am starting to think Prosser is going to pull this thing out…….

  30. Phil Kerpen is calling it a Prosser win with a certain recount.

    http://www.philkerpen.com/

  31. And for the record it still feels icky.

  32. Ryan Morgan says:

    Klop is going to win. It kept saying Waukesha had 60-some wards left, but in fact they had 0. That changes everything.

  33. lawnmower says:

    a few other counties favoring Prosser have not yet been fully counted… Calumet, Jefferson, Manitowac, Racine, Taylor…

  34. Ryan Morgan says:

    Actually, the biggest bump for Prosser will probably be in Ozaukee. But I don’t see how he makes up more than 5000 votes in all of those places combined. And Klop has a 1500 vote lead plus a bit of Dane, Milwaukee, Eau Claire, and Ashland left, among others. Just don’t see the math working out for our guy….

  35. It is a mess, Ryan. It’s too bad we can feel confident in the totals being shown.

  36. lawnmower says:

    AP shows Prosser up by 5k votes with 3528 precincts counted, out of 3630.

    721k votes to 716k

  37. Ryan Morgan says:

    Just as I entered that, almost all those places came in at once and Prosser made up about 6000 votes and took the lead. But all the places I just mentioned for Klop are still out there. Man this is dramatic.

  38. I heard there are 8,000 absentee ballots to count in Milwaukee. This won’t be decided in the next 48 hours.

  39. Any in the trunk of a car? 😉

    I thought you were calling it a day?

  40. I’m a horrible addict with zero self discipline.

    I am this time, though. Nobody call before 10am tomorrow. 🙂

  41. Okay, one last update before I head to bed.

    Prosser is ahead by 585. I estimate that he will lose 400-500 in Ashland and about 200 in Sauk, but should pick up at least 100 in Jefferson County (town of Lake Mills). The question is if that is all that is left or not.

    There seems to be clear consensus that Dane is done (final results are posted on their website) so we don’t have to worry about the one precinct there.

    There are still 12 precincts outstanding in Milwaukee according to AP, but all races in the county are at 100% according to JSOnline. So I think that those are “ghost precincts” like what we saw in Waukesha earlier.

    If that is true, then this election will probably come down to about 100 votes either way. 100 out of nearly 1.5 million. Unbelievable…….

  42. Okay, last post for real this time…..

    Good news and bad news….. the bad news is Klop picked up 229 votes in Dunn county. Didn’t see that one coming.

    The good news is a rumor that remaining Milwaukee precincts are actually not empty but rather in Cudahy and St. Francis. Prosser won handily there in the primary, so perhaps he can actually pick up some votes. He probably needs to.

  43. Anthony says:

    Looks like Wilson is keeping her spot in the school board. Abele is the new Milwaukee County Executive and the Supreme Court is just too close to call.

  44. There’s got to be a morning after…

    I think I’m going to hide under the magic covers until mid May or so.

  45. If 4 less people in each of the Waukesha county precincts voted for Prosser, this would be a dead heat.
    It will be a long time before this election is finalized. If it ends up in the Supreme Court, one has to assume that Prosser would have to abstain leaving a 3-3 deadlock. This is going to be a bumpy ride that will try everyone’s patience.

  46. And leave lots of bodies in the wake.

    I’m suddenly very tired of politics in Wisconsin.

  47. Update: Kloppenburg leads by 240 votes. All that is left is Lake Mills (shouldn’t have much impact), West Allis (should help Prosser), absentee ballots in some places (hard to say) and last minute adjustments by Judge Sumi (yikes!).

    If it was just the 1st 2 items, I think Prosser would win. As it stands, I’m not going to get my hopes too high.

  48. Randy in Richmond says:

    Ryan
    When you gave this post a title the polls had been closed for only about 1 hour 45 minutes. Almost 15 hours after polls closing the vote differential is 0.0151 %, or 224 votes out of 1,478,924 cast. I commend you for your prognosticational abilities. Have you given any thought to the Virginia Lottery for tonight’s drawings ?

    Using no science, spread sheets, or math formulae I predict Prosser will lose because it has been my experience in election’s across the country within 1 %, involving absentee ballots, or recounting, the Democrats (yea, I know this one’s non-partisan) most always win. Somehow they are better at this than Republicans.

  49. Just like the 60 some precincts in Waukesha, those remaining 2 precincts in West Allis were empty. So Kloppenburg will go into the recount with a lead of 200-250 votes. 🙁

  50. The Lorax says:

    I think dems tend to vote absentee more often, Randy, while republicans are more bread-and-butter standard voters. I’ve also heard people say conservatives are morning people and democrats are night owls. Who knows!

  51. The rumor is that in Wisconsin, all absentee ballots are counted the same day and are therefore already included in the AP totals.

    Now provisional ballots may not be included, but I think that is a very small number.

  52. I know in Brookfield absentee ballots are processed at the original voting location at the end of the vote.

    Ryan – I figured those two precincts indeed would have a story similar to what we experienced from Waukesha last night.

    Walker really needs to come up with at least one mea culpa for this mess.

  53. Randy in Richmond says:

    Ryan
    If there were an average of just one vote per precinct from any source, and Prosser captured 55 % of them, he would win, all other things remaining equal. Also, if frogs had wings…

    But as I stated it is my experience it will go the other way.

  54. When I took some training for poll watching in November, they instructed us that absentee ballots should be counted at the polling place at the end.

    Just curious, where do you see something in West Allis hasn’t reported?

    On the AP page, it only shows Jefferson County as having one last precinct yet to report.

  55. Kyle: See my post #50. At one point this morning there were 2 precincts in Milwaukee county in West Allis from which I thought Prosser could get some votes, but they proved to be empty.

    This begs the quesiton…. why would it take over 12 hours to count an empty precinct? Probably just a disconnect between AP and local results.

    The AP numbers have been moving around a bit. Right now the margin is Klop +204.

    So serious question now….. if the recount goes all the way to the Supreme Court and Prosser recuses himself and the Court is split 3-3, what happens?

  56. I suppose technically the lower court ruling would then stand.

    But, I’m perfectly content to let the Democrats dance around me pumping their arms into the air in victory. It really is pretty much over already. History will look back and recognize this is when Wisconsin decided to stick to its last liberal turn.

    I certainly won’t be planning my retirement here.

  57. Appearently there was litigation surrounding an Alabama Supreme Court race that went to Federal Court a few years back. Wonder if that is possible here.

  58. I figure it’s possible, but I’m not sure I’m up to it. One of my Facebook buddies mentioned that it’s time to go to battle. Much better to get a barrage of legislation through now than pretend anyone is going to be nice about it.

    I have one other thought, but if I typed that it would no doubt come back to bite me in the backside, so I’ll just keep it to myself. 🙂

  59. BrkfldDad says:

    James T Harris is reporting a reliable source says up to 800 Prosser votes have been ‘found’ in Waukesha county.

  60. Hahahahahaha

  61. Wait, you’re not kidding. And he’s saying 500 to 600

    http://twitter.com/#!/JamesTHarris/

  62. BrkfldDad says:

    Now he’s saying it may be a technical error

  63. Winegirl says:

    With all the incomplete, missing or erroneous voting totals being reported, I’m losing faith that the system is accurate. How can a municipal clerk “find” hundreds of uncounted votes? Sounds sloppy to me. I want to see an accurate total of votes cast, regardless of the outcome.