Figuring Darling’s chances

Let’s look at the map of her district and the totals from the Wisconsin State Supreme Court race. Right now it’s the best I can do.

Ozaukee County went more than 2 to 1 for Prosser: 20,845 to 8,296
Washington County went more than 3 to 1 for Prosser: 30,777 to 9,902
Milwaukee County went about 1 to 1.3 for Kloppenburg: 99,342 to 129,042

You know, I was about to type my little fingers to the bone, but I found two amazing sources you will enjoy on this subject.

First, check out this great spreadsheet prepared by Randy Melchert. Now see this great article by Real Clear Politics. Their take on Darling?

But this district is based in the Milwaukee suburbs, where voters overwhelmingly supported Prosser’s re-election effort. A recall campaign based upon the collective bargaining law doesn’t seem like it would have much salience here.

Ryan, it’s your turn. Work your magic.

And Democrats, spend that money. Maybe you’ll even get a double rainbow moment out of it all in the end.

Comments

  1. Wilson828 says:

    Like I said originally – for us in the Lazich district the vote and recall effort is a win win for us.

    I’m no fan of Lazich. And regardless of statistics I hold hope for her forced retirement.

    Here’s my favorite quote about Mary Lazich from Milwaukee Magazine:

    Sen. Mary Lazich (R-New Berlin): “Everybody hates her, even the Republicans. She’s just an idiot,” says a liberal-cause lobbyist.

    As for Republicans, one GOP foot soldier says Lazich, 56, is flat-out cuckoo: “Literally nuts.” Conservative activists like him despise Lazich for lying about a GOP leadership vote and for duplicitous statements on the ill-fated Taxpayers Bill of Rights legislation. “There may be no legislator taken less seriously by her colleagues,” he asserts.

    “One never knows what she will do or why,” sighs another observer. “Mary’s vision doesn’t extend beyond her own short-sightedness.”

    And for additional Mary Lazich recall banter, from a New Berlin Blogger albeit a liberal blogger, but none the less very entertaining:
    http://www.mycommunitynow.com/blogs/communityblogs/120221074.html

  2. Well, Darling only won 50.5%-49.5% in 2008, so that would suggest there is a chance she could lose. And looking at the territory of the map is a little misleading, because almost exactly half of the voters are in Milwaukee county.

    Here’s some data I dug up from Darling’s last 2 elections:

    2008 (% Voting for Darling)
    Milwaukee County 36.1%
    Ozaukee County 61.9%
    Washington County 68.5%
    Waukesha County 63.7%

    2004 (overall result was 57-43 Darling)
    Milwaukee County 44.6%
    Ozaukee County 67.8%
    Washington County 72.9%
    Waukesha County 67.3%

    Both of these were high turnout presidential-year elections. 2008 was obviously a big Democratic year. 2004 was Bush’s re-election… probably a more balanced environment. I’d say the mood of the electorate today is much closer to 2004 than 2008.

    And honestly, I think you can write off most of the swing against Darling to larger trends. Kerry won Wisconsin in 2004 by .4%. Obama won by 13.9%. That’s a swing of D +13.5 Darling won in 2004 by 14% and then in 2008 by 1%, a swing of D +13.0%. So Darling’s district just followed the statewide trends. Now that those have reversed course, she should win fairly comfortably.

    The only X-factor is turnout. All of Darling’s prior Senate races have been in very high-turnout elections. What will the electorate look like for a recall election? I don’t know why that would be disadvantage for her, but obviously she has to make sure the dropoff in suburban turnout is not greater than the dropoff in Milwaukee county turnout. So long as that happens, it is very hard to see her losing.

  3. i am no authority on recall elections but it seems that there would be a very low voter turnout so its all about getting the folks to the polls

  4. Wow! I left Waukesha County out of my little blip. Sorry about that.

    Turnout. I can help with that. Maybe I’ll volunteer to drive elderly to the polls in the Waukesha County portions, arrange absentee ballots, etc.

    No money, though. I’ll work, but I won’t write a check.

  5. The Lorax says:

    I think you’ll find that Darling’s support has bottomed out in Whitefish Bay and Shorewood. She will retain her strong showing in the other Milwaukee County portions, and the strong conservatives in Washington and Waukesha County will help protect her.

    I’ve seen private polling that shows Darling with an advantage – but not unbeatable – against an unnamed Democrat. Wasserman can pull it off, but it will be very, very tough.

  6. Ah, the special “private polling.” Well you obviously have nothing better to do with your time than enter into a race with access to “private polling.”

  7. The Lorax says:

    Nothing special about it. That’s what people do when they are thinking about running.

    And you know I’m spending my time on plenty of valuable endeavors.

  8. Anonymous Politico says:

    I think Alberta Darling will be fine. However, I’m sure the Huffington Post will nationalize this state senate race some how.