Total Recall

After seeing there was some interest in analysis of the chances for a Democratic takeover of Senator Darling’s seat, I was considering putting together a wonky statistical post looking at all the possible recall efforts throughout the state, if I could find the time.  Luckily, I don’t have to, as Sean Trende has already put together an outstanding analysis of the 6 seats the Democrats have some chance of taking over and the 4 seats where Republicans are threatening.

He concludes by noting that the odds of the Democrats winning the 3 seats needed to takeback the majority is unlikely…. for now.  Once the Republicans who won win 2010 are eligible for recalls, then the Dems might have a chance.

The other thing to note is that there are 1-2 squishy Republicans in the Senate, so if the Dems could get the margin down to 17-16, that would create a very different environment than what we have today.

I don’t think that will happen though…. my opinion is that there are only 5 seats that are reasonably likely to flip…..

Holperin – 70% chance for a Republican takeover

Kapanke – 60% chance of a Democratic takeover

Hopper – 60% chance of a Democratic takeover

Hansen – 30% chance of  a Republican takeover

Wirch – 20% chance of  Republican takeover

I think the rest, which includes Harsdorf, Olsen, Cowles, and Darling on the right and Lassa on the left are pretty safe (<20% to flip).