My predictions on a debt ceiling compromise

No, it’s not Groundhog Day (the movie), but indeed another day, another debt deal. Today the surprising news is that Senator Harry Reid’s deal saves more than Congressman John Boehner’s. Yes, those totals were configured a little differently, but it’s already been sold to the public as such. Thus, Boehner is back to the drawing board after delaying what was expected to be today’s vote on the matter in the House.

This morning also began with several House Republicans pounding the demand for the balance budget amendment to be included. This, I feel certain, is to counter the Democrat’s demand for a timeline that extends beyond Obama’s re-election date.

Here’s what I foresee as the compromise:

Reid’s numbers, after all he’s already given up any declaration of tax revenue, and they are more, at least on paper, than Boehner’s. So that’s pretty much settled. There will be a slight (very very slight) recrimination from the right as to how those numbers are calculated, but surely no one is so stupid as to walk away from them. However…

Those numbers will be split to incorporate Boehner’s timeline. One year debt increases are very common. The President simply has to walk away from this deal getting him past November 2012. Too bad. So sad.

In exchange, the House Tea Party members will drop the demand for a balanced budget amendment. They’ve held that one to their chest to let Boehner lay down his cards without smirking.

Oh, yes. I predict this could all end very well. I do think the one-year extension is a given. There is no way Republicans can back away from that one and save face now. Do they really want Obama to prance into a re-election campaign chanting how much he was able to cut spending with any other deal? I did’t think so.

Of course, there’s still a gorilla in the room. Was the deadline really a deadline, or was it artificially manufactured?