Final Recall Polls

Daily Kos Polls (number in parentheses is % vote candidate received in poll released on July 26th).

Jennifer Shilling (D): 54 (56)
Dan Kapanke (R-inc): 43 (42)
Undecided: 3 (3)
(MoE: ±3.4%)

Jessica King (D): 48 (50)
Randy Hopper (R-inc): 49 (47)
Undecided: 3 (3)
(MoE: ±2.7%)
SD-10:

Shelly Moore (D): 42 (45)
Sheila Harsdorf (R-inc): 54 (50)
Undecided: 4 (5)
(MoE: ±2.7%)

Fred Clark (D): 47 (49)
Luther Olsen (R-inc): 50 (47)
Undecided: 3 (4)
(MoE: ±2.8%)

Magellan Strategies Poll

Jessica King (D): 50.0%
Randy Hopper (R-inc): 47.5%
Undecided: 2.5%

So the liberal group has Hopper winning and the conservative group has King winning. Interesting… I think that means it will be very close.

Comments

  1. The PPP/Kos polls were pretty close last time. Interestingly, they show a slight shift toward the GOP since the last poll. Anyway, it doesn’t appear they polled the Darling/Pasch race. That one is the one I think is the most likely to surprise (in a bad way for the GOP). It could go down to the wire. I expect Kapanke and Hopper will go down, so it may well rest on Olsen and Darling.

    Note that PPP has changed its polling methodology to increase the number of Republicans polled this year, and in the July election they tilted slightly GOP, so I’d subtract 2-3 points from the margin to get a more accurate prediction. That’s why I see Hopper going down and Olsen going down to the wire.

  2. Heard an interview with Darling this morning and she did sound quite nervous. I think that will be closer than I thought, but I still think Alberta will pull it out in the end.

    Olsen will win by at least 4-5 points.

    Nothing would surprise me in Hopper vs. King. Least of all, a recount.

    I also think Kapanke will do better than expected. But that probably means losing by 6-7 points instead of 11.

  3. As I’ve mentioned before, if Darling loses, it might be the end of her career, but it’s only a temporary win for Democrats in Wisconsin. The seat will be Republican come November 2012. So, even if Dems win, it’s a very fleeting victory.

    I think you are clever to suggest a Hopper / King recount. If I’ve learned anything, it’s that this misery will last through November 2012.

  4. It’s going to come down to Darling. It isn’t looking good right now. 🙁

  5. Actually, If you compare to 2008 (when Darling just barely won) the race is on almost an identical path. Look at county by county results

    http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2011/by_county/WI_Page_0809.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

    Then look in comments section here to see what happened in 2008:

    http://fairlyconservative.com/2011/04/21/figuring-darlings-chances/#comments

  6. On Wisconsin! That Tate’s already out there crying fraud means “job well done” Waukesha. You know Nickolaus probably quadruple-counted those votes before releasing them after there whole Brookfield debacle last election. There was no “stuffing” going on. It’s just that sanity prevailed.