We’re Down to Four

I think it is fair to say that if your presidential campaign is so inept that you fail to even get on the ballot in the 12th largest state in the country, your odds of being selected as the candidate worthy of the opportunity to dethrone Obama are slim and none.

Sorry Huntsman, Bachmann, and Santorum…. I don’t care what happens in Iowa or anywhere else… you are done.


  1. Dang! Great catch. You may have to wear the top geek crown.

  2. The candidate who should really be exploiting this information is Perry. He is competing against RS and MB for a lot of the same voters. A PAC supporting him could make a great ad about how all 3 are great candidates if we are really serious about stopping Romney, we need someone who can win the primary and this failure highlights how the Bachmann and Santorum candidacies are dead on arrival. (Hows that for some non-Romney-centric political analysis?) 🙂

  3. Ryan Morgan says:
  4. I’m hearing Perry is off, too. Looking for a link beyond Twitter.

  5. Perry’s response upon learning of the news was a simple, one word answer: “Oops.”

  6. Here’s a gem from race42012.com

    One ironic note of interest: I am informed that Mark Levin is a resident of Virginia. If Gingrich doesn’t make it on the ballot, that means Mr. Levin has to vote for either Paul or Romney in his primary.

  7. Randy in Richmond says:

    Voting is taken very seriously in Virginia. No registering to vote on election day. No having a felon ‘speak for you’ on election day so you can vote.

    I suspect this same strict philosophy applies to those trying to qualify to run for office. Primaries in Virginia are traditionally no big deal. In fact, until recently the candidates were chosen in a cigar-smoke filled room and then off to the conventions to pick a national candidate. Word here is Newt probably won’t make it.

  8. Ryan Morgan says:

    If the Unionistas can get at least 500,000 signatures, you’d think these candidates could manage 10,000 in a state with over 2 million more people than Wisconsin.

  9. One would have to conclude they don’t really care. And with the Republicans going to the proportionate counting of votes, even the smaller states can mean a few votes here and there.

  10. Actually, Virginia is a winner-take-all state if the winner gets 50+% of the vote.


    And obviously the winner will get to 50+% if there are only 2 names on the ballot (and likely could even with 3).

  11. Ryan
    Learn something every day. I had read we were a proportional state and we are–but only under certain conditions.

  12. Gingrich is out in Virginia. This shows a gross lack of organizational and leadership skills that so often accompany members of Congress running for President.

  13. Unbelievable. We are down to two – Romney and Paul.

    I told a workmate of the spouse’s last Saturday that we’d need to get used to the idea of Romney as the Republican offering. He laughed and argued with me.

    Congratulations, Ryan, on your early call on this one.

  14. So let’s go ahead and prepare for Romney’s candidacy. Not that I’m a big fan of either him or Gingrich.

  15. Randy in Richmond says:
  16. Here’s a couple factoids to consider:

    -Newt is lashing out VA as a “failed system” http://www.boston.com/news/local/new_hampshire/articles/2011/12/24/gop_gingrich_perry_will_not_be_on_va_ballot/

    -But VA had the same system in 2008, when 6 Republican candidates and 6 Democratic candidates all managed to make the ballot

    -They also had the same system in 2000, when 5 Republican candidates made the ballot, ONE OF WHOM WAS ALAN KEYES.

    -Gingrich also said his campaign will pursue an aggressive write-in campaign in Virginia

    -VA law states “At all elections EXCEPT PRIMARY ELECTIONS it shall be lawful for any voter to vote for any person other than the listed candidates for the office by writing or hand printing the person’s name on the official ballot.”

    -So in summary, Newt’s campaign failed to clear a hurdle that even the Keyes 2000 campaign was able to meet. But Newt blames the system instead of himself (not a good quality in a leader). Then he proves he still doesn’t have a clue by proposing an alternative that is a violation of VA state law. Bottom line: the Gingrich campaign has no idea what they are doing, yet they want to be trusted to go up against the Obama machine…. not a good idea.

  17. I concur with your comments, Ryan. Furthermore, in a recent poll using all candidates, Gingrich lead Romney by 30 to 25 %.


    This also reduces Newt’s ability to criticize the ineptness of the Obama administration–who, by the way, is on the Democratic Primary ballot in Virginia. Not that it isn’t true, but people who throw stones….

  18. To me it screams the only serious candidates are on the ballot. Period. You don’t get to make mistakes at this level.

  19. Romney’s the nominee. Gingrich has no organization, particularly since he was never expected to run a serious campaign and was an “accidental” front runner.

    I’m not thrilled with either Romney or Gingrich, and need a reason to see either as an improvement over 4 more years of Obama. At worst, these two could be another George W. Bush (i.e. a RINO/statist “conservative” who governs like a liberal, expands the welfare state, creates lots of government agencies, and yet opens the door for the next Democrat to blame “the free market” for everything that goes wrong.

    If SCOTUS does its job and throws out the entire health bill, then we might be better off waiting it out (assuming Anthony Kennedy can wait until 2017 to retire). If they don’t, and wind up either upholding it entirely or just invalidating the mandate but upholding the rest of it, then it is incumbent on the nominee to state unequivocally what his plans are for addressing the monstrosity that’s left.

  20. As Newt Gingrich’s poll numbers were going up just a few weeks ago, Ryan had a summary of another Republican debate and it was commented on that ‘Newt would implode over the next few weeks or months’. That prediction was based on his established history in the political arena. His campaign’s actions in the past few days may be the beginning of the fulfillment of that happening.

    As Ryan alluded to, the Gingrich campaign’s first reaction on his failed registration was to blame Virginia’s process, calling it a “failed system” and a “cumbersome process”. And now his campaign is comparing his failure to pass registration muster to the 1941 attack on Pearl Harbor, calling it an “unexpected setback”.


    As a citizen of Virginia I take exception to comparing the historic event of Pearl Harbor, where over 2,000 people died in an unprevoked, sneak attack to a filing process that has been law for many years and all the candidates had access to the day they declared as running. There is a distinct difference between ‘exploding’ bombs and ‘imploding’ politicians.

    One wonders if Newt would find negotiating with North Korea, China, Russia, and Pakistan, all laborious processes, to be too “cumbersome a process” to put into it the necessary preparation and groundwork to achieve the desired results.

    Furthermore do we on the right want to nominate someone primarily because their strength is that they could “hold their own” in a debate with President Obama ? Think about that for a moment. That’s the definition, agreed to by many on both sides, of our current President–a strong debater, able to deliver a stirring speech, and presumably possessing a high intelligence quota ? To use the current vernacular, “how’s that working out” ? The ineptness of this President and his administration is a subject for another day.

    And oh, did you know that Newt’s been a citizen of Virginia for over a decade.

  21. Ryan’s patience in this matter has been remarkable. It does look like we’re done, though. Better to know now that a couple of months after the election that Gingrich has a whiny underbelly. Otherwise it would be just like Obama again.