The Stakes Tonight

Here’s my bold prediction:

If Rick Santorum wins the debate tonight, he’ll go on to win at least one of Michigan and Arizona.  The primary will continue on for months, Santorum and Romney will continue bashing on one another, and whoever emerges will be severely weakened and lose to Obama.  With 4 more years of Obama, our debt problem continues to get worse and the hyperinflation begins by 2015 at the latest.

If Mitt Romney wins the debate tonight, he’ll win Michigan and Arizona and within a month or so, he’ll be generally regarded as the presumptive nominee.  If that happens, he’ll go on to beat Obama and, with Republican majorities in the House and Senate as well, the nation will make significant progress on its debt crisis.  It won’t all be solved in 4 years, but we’ll be on a path to sanity rather than a path to Greece.

That’s the stakes tonight as I see them.  No pressure, Mitt. 🙂


  1. 1. Neither one of these guys beat Obama.

    2. Republicans do not reduce the deficit. They make it worse. This is a historical fact. If deficit reduction is your primary concern then you shouldn’t vote for a Republican.

    And how many more years do conservatives get to be wrong about predicting hyperinflation?

  2. I saw the last hour of the debate. My take is that it was a draw, which probably benefits Romney. At this point, I think the race is mostly about preserving a divided government. Obama is back above 50% against all 4 potential GOP opponents, and a brokered convention isn’t going to happen. Romney is probably the most likely to keep enough GOPers going to the polls in November so that the House stays GOP and the Senate goes GOP.

  3. Randy in Richmond says:

    If one looks at a graph of the US deficit from the year 1900 to present there are 3 huge spikes. They occurred during the administrations of Woodrow Wilson, Franklin Roosevelt, and Barack Obama–all big government liberal spending Democrats. Yes, the deficit does increase under Republican Presidents but at a much lower overall rate. And there is a direct correlation in the Clinton administration to a rise and fall in the deficit as it relates to the Congress reverting from Democratic to Republican control. Compare it to gaining weight–if one adds ten pounds that’s an increase while adding 50 pounds is also an increase–but which is better in the long run?
    I hope the Republicans continue forever to be wrong about hyper-inflation.

  4. Santorum’s fate belongs to the holders of new money as many of Romney’s donors are hitting limits. It won’t matter much in November since the Republicans hate Santorum and the TEAple despise Romney.

    Wisconsin will do its bit to keep the Senate blue but the House will most likely stay red. The real fun starts in 2016 with a contested race for Joe Biden

  5. Thats was a fantastic job of completely ignoring the debt/GDP explosion during the Reagan, Bush I and Bush II years, Randy. Reagan was the worst offender of the 3. All 3 deficit spent for no reason other than to expand big government programs. The GOP has no track record of deficit reduction.

  6. Ryan Morgan says:

    “The GOP has no track record of deficit reduction.”

    There’s this guy named Scotty W who happens to govern an upper-midwestern state. He’s only been governor for 1 year, but I heard he did some things to improve his state’s solvency position. And I’m pretty sure he’s a Republican too….

  7. A 1 year Gov. from Wisconsin. Sort of makes my point.

  8. Randy in Richmond says:

    I didn’t ignore anything. I stated the deficit has risen during Republican President’s tenure, just not to the extent it has during the Dems’.

    And here in Virginia, we had a surplus last budget year under Republican Governor Bob McDonnell with a Republican House and Democratic Senate.

  9. Haven’t you been in the sack for Romney since the get-go? I like how you paint a doom and gloom picture if Santorum won and a happy day, warm and fuzzy if Romney wins. Come on. You sound like an Obama ‘Hope and Change’ spokesman from ’08.

  10. “I stated the deficit has risen during Republican President’s tenure, just not to the extent it has during the Dems’.”

    Yeah, yeah. And you made sure to go back just far enough to include WW1 and the Great Depression in your graph to make your point which is ridiculous. In our lifetime, my statement is plainly obvious so let’s stop splitting hairs and let’s move on.

  11. Randy in Richmond says:

    “This is a historical fact.”

    You broght up historic–not me. I consider history mostly prior to my lifetime, though that is geting harder to do.