Smaller Counties Swing Big to Walker

We all know Waukesha and other suburban counties went big to Walker (as they did in 2010) and Milwaukee and Dane counties went big to Barrett (as they did in 2010).  But when comparing the county-by-county results of 2012 to 2010, it is clear Walker earned significantly more support from voters all across the rest of the state. 

Here is the impressive list of all counties where Walker got at least 3.5 percent more of the vote than he did in 2010:

County Walker % 2010 Walker % 2012 % Change
Taylor 62.2% 71.8% 9.7%
Trempealeau 48.9% 57.0% 8.1%
Clark 60.6% 68.7% 8.0%
Price 52.2% 60.0% 7.8%
Outagamie 53.9% 61.3% 7.4%
Kewaunee 56.7% 64.1% 7.4%
Buffalo 53.5% 60.8% 7.3%
Pepin 53.1% 60.1% 6.9%
Door 50.0% 56.8% 6.9%
Rusk 56.4% 62.6% 6.3%
Forest 52.6% 58.8% 6.1%
Calumet 60.3% 66.3% 6.1%
Oconto 59.4% 65.2% 5.9%
Shawano 60.3% 66.2% 5.9%
Waupaca 59.1% 64.7% 5.6%
Marinette 56.5% 61.9% 5.4%
Barron 54.7% 59.3% 4.6%
Green Lake 64.3% 68.9% 4.6%
Marathon 57.6% 62.1% 4.5%
Langlade 61.2% 65.6% 4.4%
Menominee 22.1% 26.5% 4.4%
Lafayette 52.3% 56.7% 4.4%
Crawford 46.8% 51.1% 4.2%
Manitowoc 60.0% 64.1% 4.1%
Burnett 56.9% 60.8% 3.9%
Washburn 53.4% 57.1% 3.7%
Brown 56.1% 59.7% 3.6%

 

Now, here’s the (incredibly short) list of counties that swung by at least 3.5% to Barrett:

County Barrett% 2010 Barrett% 2012 % Change
Douglas 57.3% 64.4% 7.1%
Racine 43.0% 46.6% 3.6%

 

While the Democrat strongholds of Dane and Milwaukee counties turned out more voters in 2012 than in 2010 to make sure Barrett didn’t lose by double digits, it is clear that in many counties all across the state, a significant number of voters swung to Walker.  One can debate if these voters grew to like Walker more over the last 19 months or simply wanted to send the message that petty recalls over simple policy differences need to be defeated (probably a combination of the two). 

But what is crystal-clear is that the voters representing smaller-population counties swung significantly towards Walker and helped carry the governor to a broad and impressive victory.

Comments

  1. I’m guessing the Racine results were skewed somewhat by the state senate recall race, as that was the only one that went to the Democrats. I wonder what happened there. Was the incumbent weak? Did the GOTV effort work better there because it’s a short drive from Chicago? Kenosha and Racine are practically part of Illinois culturally, anyway.

  2. Note Walker still won Racine county, just by less than in 2010

  3. white collar crime kills says:

    “simply wanted to send the message that petty recalls over simple policy differences”
    Over the last week or so, I wondered why I saw an inexplicable number of comments objecting to the concept of the recall. today I learned why. One of the barrage of superpac ads hammered that opinion into people’s heads.
    BTW,
    1. Government using force of law to ban the rights of *only one* party in a negotiation is not a petty policy issue.
    2. Why don’t republicans enact laws that force corporate suppliers to forgo collective bargaining representation (ie, the sales agent)?
    The supposed incongruity can be explained easily. conservatives perpetrate classwar. Moral corruption is not a petty issue.

  4. If it was such a huge policy issue and such an immoral act on Walker’s part, then why didn’t Barrett campaign on it? Tom ran on jobs, and when that blew up in his face, he tried to run on John Doe.

    Collective bargaining for public workers was barely mentioned because it is obvious to most normal people that it is an absurd concept. As FDR wrote:

    “All Government employees should realize that the process of collective bargaining, as usually understood, cannot be transplanted into the public service. It has its distinct and insurmountable limitations when applied to public personnel management. The very nature and purposes of Government make it impossible for administrative officials to represent fully or to bind the employer in mutual discussions with Government employee organizations. The employer is the whole people, who speak by means of laws enacted by their representatives in Congress.”

  5. white collar crime kills says:

    On average, Democrats are poor operatives in the dirty art of politicking. But also they are constrained by a large portion of Democratic base that is “pacifist”. Rough mouthed Democrats receive rebuke by almost all of the MSM. Rough mouthed conservatives are revered by large numbers of conservatives and thier portion of the MSM. This modern tradition began with Morton Downey Jr on the entertainment side, and with Newt Gingrich on the elected representatives side.

    FDR seems an odd Conservative choice when attempting an appeal to authority. Why not a counter with a quote from Stalin, who certainly deterred true democratically based unions?

    However, I will respond as if FDR’s (apparent) oft-quoted opinion represents your opinion.
    This philosophy is too authoritarian for my tastes. In negotiations between employees and government’s hiring representatives, the union whose power is the “final arbiter” is the union of voters (the state).

  6. white collar crime kills says:

    Also, Walker didn’t write and pass the legislation, he promoted and signed it. As I wrote, the popular moral venality of classwar afflicts *all* of modern US Conservatism.

    My two previous posts have not appeared.

  7. white collar crime kills says:

    On average, Democrats are poor operatives in the dirty art of politicking. But also they are constrained by a large portion of Democratic base that is “pacifist”. Rough mouthed Democrats receive rebuke by almost all of the MSM. Rough mouthed conservatives are revered by large numbers of conservatives and thier portion of the MSM. This modern tradition began with Morton Downey Jr on the entertainment side, and with Newt Gingrich on the elected representatives side.

    FDR seems an odd Conservative choice when attempting an appeal to authority. Why not a counter with a quote from Stalin, who certainly deterred true democratically based unions?

    However, I will respond as if FDR’s (apparent) oft-quoted opinion represents your opinion.
    This philosophy is too authoritarian for my tastes. In negotiations between employees and government’s hiring representatives, the union whose power is the “final arbiter” is the union of voters (the state).

    (repost)

  8. white collar crime kills says:

    You omitted a critical modifier.
    “Collective bargaining for public workers was barely mentioned because it is obvious to most normal [*] people that it is an absurd concept.”

    * brainwashed and incapable of clear independent thought

  9. The Lorax says:

    “Did the GOTV effort work better there because it’s a short drive from Chicago?”

    You guys are such conspiracy theorists. They weren’t shipping in tons of people to do GOTV.

    Democrats had a great GOTV effort, so did the GOP. I don’t think we can really point to that as pivotal. I just think the elecorate as a whole is more union-oriented in Racine, and more minorities, and people traditionally Democrats.

  10. Randy in Richmond says:

    white collar

    What world do you live in?

    The Democrats traditionally created and practice “the dirty art of politicking” better than anybody else. One reason the Republicans succeeded in Wisconsin is because they utilized the long-used Democratic tactic of out of state funds in a local election. I think it’s hilarious that you Dems are crying foul that Walker raised more money than Barrett by some ratio when for years the MSM and the Dem party have touted how much campaign funds you raise. Unions for years have transmitted funds and workers across state lines for their agendas and apparently object to others doing the same. There’s even been talk of Obama raising $1 billion dollars for his 2012 run.

    Please name and give an example of a MSM “rebuking” the Republicans. Reporting what they say is not a rebuke.

    And to compare negotiations between private owner and worker with negotiations between public management (elected officials) and worker is ludicrous. There is no conflict of interest in private company negotiations.

  11. Kills – sorry about your comments not picking up right away. You see, when you work through an anonymous IP like you do, a lot of stuff sent through that number is spam and the filter catches it even though you’ve entered the proof word.

    You’ve been here before. You’ll tire of us and go away soon. You always do.

    In the meantime, have fun with that bitter clinger thing you’ve got going.

    Party on.

  12. Things I learned from white collar crime kills

    1) Republicans see FDR as morally equivalent to Stalin

    2) Even through 90+% of Americans see themselves as middle class, Republicans are actively warring against the middle class (doesn’t seem to be a smart political strategy to me, yet Republicans seem to be doing pretty well lately. hmmmm……)

    3) The (at least) 1.2 million Wisconsinites who oppose collective bargaining for public unions are all “brainwashed and incapable of clear independent thought”, while scholarly folks like our friend white collar are enlightened and know what’s best for all of us, if only we would put into practice all the wisdom he has to offer.

    The cognitive dissidence of these folks is simply astounding.

  13. Bill Kurtz says:

    My compliments to you for the astute analysis of where Walker picked up strength. You beat the MJS to the punch on this.
    As for Racine, I wonder if Walker carried the 21st Senate District, since the portion of the county not in the 21st is heavily Republican.
    If Walker carried the 21st, some of his voters refused to support Van Wanggaard. I bet that was due to the blatant hypocrisy of Wanggaard, a former cop and police union activist, who pockets a public pension, then wants to deny others what he already got.

  14. J. Strupp says:

    “Even through 90+% of Americans see themselves as middle class, Republicans are actively warring against the middle class”

    Oh no question Ryan. Republican economic policy actively wars against the middle class. On that, “white collar” is correct.

  15. In your opinion – J. Strupp. In your opinion.

  16. J. Strupp says:

    Yeah sure. In my opinion, the GOP has been on a 30 year mission to redistribute wealth up the food chain by stealing all of the productivity gains made by the middle class and almost every piece of economic data suggests that they’ve been successful. In my opinion.

  17. Randy in Richmond says:

    Compliments on your astute analysis Ryan.

    If Barrett had gotten the same number of votes in 2010 with no change to Walker, Barrett would be governor. Your figures show it’s better to utilize the “wheelbarrow” method of gaining votes than the “dumptruck” method which has a statistical limit. The consistant increases for Walker across the state are remarkable. I wonder if many of the votes that made the difference were votes against the unions for many and varied reasons as opposed so much to votes for Walker?

  18. It almost seems like Mr. Gilbert reads this blog or something. 🙂

    http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/news/159318735.html#!page=3&pageSize=10&sort=newestfirst

  19. Yep. I know for a fact he does. 🙂

    Nice work, Ryan.