Like a kid on Christmas morning. Except I could be getting coal in my stocking and I just don’t know it yet.

Today is the day folks. I could challenge myself to think, but you’ll have more fun reading Shoebox at No Runny Eggs on the matter.

Now I love Shoebox, I’ve made that clear before, but bless his heart, he’s wrong. The mandate is going down leaving Congress to untangle the mess. I do really enjoy his point about Chief Justice Roberts’ legacy, though.

I’ll be in and out today as I’m putting a kid on an airplane again. Keep in touch.


  1. Billiam says:

    I hope that it goes down. If it is upheld, we are no longer the Land of the Free. We’ll be vassals to a Federal Government that was never intended to have that kind of power. I try to be optimistic, but, in the last few years I’ve become more of a cynic. That sucks, as I used to have more faith in this Nation.

  2. You might need to get a coal-fired furnace. 🙁 I’m anything but giddy. I think people are overconfident. Even the MSM thinks the mandate is going down, so if the whole thing is upheld it will be a big boost for Obama, creating a worst-case scenario (law upheld, re-election chances boosted).

  3. Survives as a tax 🙁

  4. Moving towards single payer since you can’t punish something you don’t do. Really incredible.

  5. Ugh.

  6. 6-3. Such a disappointment. The only bone is a narrow reading of the Medicaid provision. ACA is upheld in its entirety. Obama is popping the Champagne corks as we speak.

    Now we know why Kagan and Ginsberg were joking earlier this month. The crowd on MSNBC and Kos are happy tonight.

  7. I hate to say it, but I told you so. Contrary to popular opinion, we don’t have a 5-4 court. We have 4 automatic liberals, 3 conservatives, and 2 wing votes.

  8. It was 5-4 to uphold the mandate. Roberts turned. 🙁

  9. KPOM, no Roberts didn’t turn! What Roberts did is secure his place as a true genius. He upheld the right of Congress to legislate. And by declaring the mandate a tax he set us up for the biggest political showdown since the Civil War.

    We need one. We’ve gotten sloppy. Now it’s time for the opposing sides to sharpen the message, for voters to become educated, and America to choose. It’s the best possible outcome for Romney as it gives him a clear target and the GOP has definitely won the message on this matter.

    Game on.

  10. There were 4 votes to throw out the entire ACA, Cindy. Roberts saved the Administration and made Obama’s day. Perhaps he caved under the political pressure.

    There won’t be 60 votes to repeal this thing in the Senate next year. It’s the law of the land, and there’s nothing we can do about it anymore. 🙁

  11. There weren’t 60 votes in the Senate to pass it as I remember. Buck up! All is not lost.

    Roberts told the American people to get to the table on this one, that’s all.

  12. Yes, there were 60 votes to pass it, Cindy. Remember the Cornhusker Kickback? That was to get Ben Nelson’s 60th vote on Christmas Eve in 2009. They resorted to the whole “reconciliation” thing only to pass a few edits to it after Scott Brown got elected.

  13. What irks me is that Kennedy was in the bag, not just to overturn the mandate, but to invalidate the entire law. We were one vote away from a do-over. Roberts apparently buckled under the pressure and didn’t want to be an “activist,” precisely at the time when the country needed an activist decision to restore balance.

    All the hoopla in the opinion over the mandate violating the Commerce Clause is meaningless. Congress can require everyone in Chicago to buy a gun or everyone in New York to buy 20oz Coca-Colas or pay a 100% income tax if they want.

  14. Yes, indeed that last argument seems to hold.

    But it’s done. How are you going to work with it?

  15. I don’t think you can repeal the entire bill without 60, but I think with president Romney and 51 votes in the Senate, you can pass a reconciliation bill that gets rid of the worst parts of Obamacare.

    I wouldn’t call Roberts a “genius” for what, in my view, is a wrongheaded decision, but much of what Cindy said about both our sloppiness and setting us up for a showdown is completely on the mark.

  16. Reconciliation can’t get rid of the exchanges, or the IPAB (the “death panel”), or the insurance regulations. All it can do is get rid of the mandate by eliminating this “tax.” So what.

    This is a showdown that we’ll lose. Obama is much more likely to be re-elected than before. A 5-4 victory is more meaningful than a 6-3 in this case, since it shows that there are two swing votes on this court, including the most important member of the court. I doubt that the Left is overly concerned that “1 person” decided this the way they would have been had Roberts ruled the other way.

    Expect Bill Clinton’s DOMA to fall next term (which I actually would agree with), and affirmative action to be upheld. There are some significant cases on the docket.

  17. J. Strupp says:

    So Republicans want a President Romney to find a way to rid the nation of health care reform which Romney, himself, was instrumental in designing.


  18. @J Strupp, I couldn’t care less about the GOP. They are just Democrat-lite.

    We were one vote away from a positive result, as even the slightly left-leaning Kennedy was on board with tossing the whole thing out. I wouldn’t have guessed that the Chief Justice who was willing to stand up for the First Amendment on a 5-4 vote wasn’t willing to stand against an expansive view of the government’s ability to intrude upon our personal freedoms by the same margin.

    Thanks, George W. Bush. You did a heckuva job.

    Don’t worry, J. Strupp, some future GOP administration will require you to do something you don’t like or pay a substantial “tax.” Today was a victory for social engineering, which is a defeat for liberty. I hate social engineering whether practiced by the left or the right.

  19. Most of Obamacare can in fact be repealed with President Romney and 50 Republican Senators. See here:

  20. Roberts likely switched his vote in May:

    Scalia’s dissent reads like a majority opinion, and even refers to Ginsburg’s concurrence as a dissent. Plus, Ginsburg gave a speech earlier this month on the power of a good dissent. She, along with the political pressure, flipped Roberts it seems.


  21. Ryan – I just sent that article to a friend of mine. 🙂

  22. J. Strupp, it is an interesting dilemma, I agree.

  23. Ryan – I thought it was 51 Senators, but yes.

  24. With President Romney it is 50, because his VP would cast the deciding vote. This is exactly what happened in the Clinton administration… vote on (at the time) the biggest tax increase in history was 50-50 and Gore’s tie-breaking vote pushed it through.

  25. Thanks. I stand corrected.

  26. Look at the RCP electoral map. Obama has 221 to Romney’s 181. Plus Obama is leading in Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, and Virginia. Heck, a poll came out today showing Obama up 2 in North Carolina. And all that was before today. Harry Reid got on TV today and said that the GOP should stop trying to overturn Obamacare and “focus on jobs.” He turned the GOP’s argument for the last 2 years against it, showing there’s 1 politically savvy Mormon in DC, and it isn’t the GOP nominee.

  27. Randy in Richmond says:

    I’m a little surprised but not shocked. This will be a boost to Romney I believe. I remember the reason the Teaparty evolved–it was over Obamacare. Today’s decision will relight and rekindle the fire in many that have been in hibernation since the Dems were kicked in 2010.

  28. Good reading:

    Ok, and KPOM, geeeeeze. Good thing I’m avoiding sharp objects today. You are on a serious downstroke. Yes, I see your point, but you might want to back away from the ledge.

  29. Obamacare kills jobs. You can talk about both at the same time.

  30. @Cindy, it’s interesting how Ezra Klein et. al are looking at Roberts with admiration for doing exactly what they said they didn’t want him to do (play politics).

    Roberts is the reason why I detest the GOP, and why a Romney victory means nothing to me. He agreed with all the philosophical points, and took the “pragmatic” approach to avoid a bigger controversy.

    This was our only chance to kill Obamacare. Really. It was. David Frum is an idiot, but he’s right that this was the GOP’s Waterloo. They staked everything on this and lost, not at the hands of Kennedy, but at George W. Bush’s own appointee. Now Harry Reid, Chuck Schumer and Barack Obama are gleefully saying the GOP should stop wasting its time on health care and focus on jobs. Meanwhile, the GOP takes a meaningless vote to “censure” Eric Holder, on a day when nobody’s paying attention anyway.

    June was a very good month for President Obama.

    There is no way for the GOP to overturn this. They have no plan to “replace” it, and so the public will turn on them just as they did the Democrats in 2010. Once they see that, they will lose their will to repeal. We don’t need repeal and replace. We need repeal. Period. I don’t trust the GOP to deliver that.

    People like “Tommy!” probably won’t be principled enough to vote for a repeal even if it costs them their jobs. IOW, there aren’t enough Scott Walkers in the GOP to make a difference in the Senate and House.

  31. KPOM – absolutely.

    A friend just sent me a note reminding me taxation is to come from the House and this started as a Senate bill.

    *updated* Just saw this on twitter: “Passed House in 11/09, passed Senate in 12/09, revision passed House in 3/10 then went to Senate.”

    Roberts was up to something. And I’ll write more later, as I need to swim, but you would do yourself a favor to have a long, leisurely dinner and forget this blog. 🙂