Well, they agree on 1 thing

New polls are out on the Wisconsin Senate rate.  They are very different.

PPP says that Hovde has taken the lead over Thompson and is in fact beating Baldwin head to head by 1 point, while Tommy only ties Tammy. (Since PPP is a very liberal firm, I found this interesting… it is almost like they are trying to coax Republicans into nominating someone other than Thompson by manufacturing a result that is drastically different than what all other polls are saying in order to help Tammy win.  Count me as skeptical unless someone else confirms these results.)

Marquette says no… Hovde has gained a bit of ground, but Thompson still leads the primary handily and is the only candidate who can beat Baldwin.

So dramatically different results, but the two polls agree do agree on 1 thing: It is a 2 man race. Neumann is toast and Fitzy never got off the ground. 

For the record, I predict Hovde will narrowly win the primary over Tommy and his race against Baldwin will be extremely close.  But if we did nominate Thompson, he would win by about 5 points.  I’m still in the Thompson camp, because I want to see Obamacare repealed and we probably need to win Wisconsin to make that happen.  But I do understand the appeal of Hovde.


  1. Doesn’t the Marquette poll still say 25% undecided?

    I know Neumann is likely out but he’s still my favorite candidate. What is interesting to me is that there seems to be a serious “not Tommy!” contingency. That and Hovde’s decision to throw money into television early certainly gave him a much-needed bump.

    The great mystery is Fitzgerald. I still ponder on his decision to stay in the race. Neumann has a bunch of money he’s raised and has started advertising, but Fitzgerald has a very quiet campaign from what I can tell, yet he managed to win the GOP poll in Green Bay (not the endorsement as the numbers weren’t big enough.)

  2. We must have the 51st vote.

  3. I like Tommy

  4. I know Tommy is running ads saying he’ll be the 51st vote, but I think that is technically wrong. If Obama wins, we need 51 votes to repeal Obamacare, but the 51st vote is moot because O will veto it. If Romney wins, we need 50 votes. If it winds up 50-50, whoever Romney’s VP is will break the tie and be the 51st vote.

    So all those ads Thompson is running should say he’ll be the 50th vote. That’s really the only number that matters, so far as the Senate is concerned.