Skewed Polls

If you are interested in the idea of polls that sample too many Democrats that I’ve been talking about, check this new article from The Weekly Standard.  Jay Cost and I are on the same page… we are NOT saying that Romney is up 8 points as some sites are erroneously claiming.  We are saying that Obama is probably ahead by a point or two today, not the 8, 10, or 12 points that the worst polls are claiming.

Although, if Romney keeps putting out terrific ads like this one, he may well take the lead sooner rather than later.  In other words, if the election is about policies and results, not personalities and media spin, Obama is in big trouble.



  1. I think that Republicans are being pretty Pollyanna-ish about this. Romney is a bad candidate, and Obama, though bad too, is less bad, and is getting some cover. The overall result is that Romney is doing poorly. I think Doug has a good view on it here

  2. Keep polishing that turd, Ryan.

  3. I love it. Another friend mentioned the same article today. (Oh dear. Yes. Most of my friends intensely follow politics.) And you know what? If you read the article J. Strupp, you’d realize it’s not a turd Ryan is polishing. It’s a reasonable hypothesis.

  4. That’s an interesting response. My suspicion is that folks who are truly confident their side will win don’t lash out like that. We shall see…

  5. Here comes the juvenile I’m rubber you’re glue response …

  6. Nate Silver’s taking care of this quite nicely.

    And I learned a long time ago not to fight Vegas when it comes to something of this magnitude. Anything’s possible, it’s just highly unlikely.

    My take is that most of this is wishful thinking. It’s the logical response. We’re all human.

  7. I’m waiting for the St. Norbert poll…

  8. Oh, you mean former Obama adviser Nate Silver?

    Of course, you’re the same idiot who has said regulations don’t cost anything. This pretty much invalidates whatever opinions you may have.

  9. How accurate was he the last couple of races?

    I’ll give you Romney, even money. Let me know how much you want in for, Robert.

    And yeah, I said regulations don’t cost anything. That’s my position. They’re free.

  10. Obama is a bad candidate? Nice one. He’s polling better right now than he was in 2008. Put that in your pipe and…

  11. Lorax, can’t you even try to back up some of your arguments?

  12. Why would I bother? You guys have found a way to completely discredit every poll you disagree with. There is no conversation to be had here about the polls on their merits, just more bloviating about how all the pollsters are conspiring to jig the numbers for Democrats.

  13. This I will bet on….. if Romney wins independent voters in Ohio by 17 points as this poll suggests, he’ll win the state, not lose by 6 points

  14. Same with this one… Romney wins VA Indies by 19 but loses the state? Put down the crack pipe PPP….

  15. Can you link directly to the PPP poll because I’m not finding it in the link you have given me, and I didn’t find it on their site after looking a bit.

    One of the trends I have seen is that while Mitt is more competitive with Indies, he’s not as solid with Republicans and is losing some Republican support to BHO. Maybe not the case here.

  16. Lorax, where have you seen that? That trend that Mitt is losing Republicans to BHO? Seriously? Maybe Joe Scarborough, but that is the only one I can think of. I don’t know one person that is GOP that would vote for Obama over Romney. Please explain the ‘trend’ you see. In polls? Thanks.

  17. Well the new Conneticut poll out sees Mitt winning Independents and 20% of Republicans voting for the president. It was a PPP poll I believe. That’s one example.

    And the fact that you don’t know one person who would vote Barack is probably self-selecting. I just found out my best friend’s dad voted for McCain in 2008 because he’s a navy guy. He’s a HUGE Democrat but that made him vote for McCain. People do unexpected things.

  18. Just to be clear, I don’t know a Republican voting for Obama. I do have many friends who are Dems who will vote for him, and I know of two friends that voted Obama who not vote for him again.

  19. DICK STEINBERG says:

    to be objective and pragmatic, both candidates for President have outstanding credentials in education and government/political science. both are willing to take on an almost impossible task to be the next popular president. we will need a more bi-partisan government to resolve all the problems partianship got us into. after the winner is declared it is imperative that both political parties join in together to give the people what they need. if not, we will have one war after another because the enemies will see us as weak and divided.

  20. Excellent points, Dick. Do you think it will ever happen?

  21. “we will need a more bi-partisan government to resolve all the problems partianship got us into”

    That sounds good, but in reality, it is a pretty naive statement. The left cares about equality of outcome. The right cares about prosperity. In many circumstances, those differing priorities lead to mutually exclusive policies. Saying “work together” is all well and good, but you can only do that there is common ground on what the end goal you are working towards ought to look like. If one party thinks Europe is what we should emulate and other thinks it is a terrible model, then what do you do?

    Jonah Goldberg talks about this expertly in his Tyranny of Cliches…. excellent book.

  22. DICK STEINBERG says:

    we do it by term limits for the US Senate.