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Short night. Wisconsin called, along with Pennsylvania and Michigan. It looks like an Obama wave.
And Tammy beat “Tommy!” It’s been a great night for the Democrats.
Looks like KPOM is going to be right on this one. Romney’s actually doing decent in OH so far… will be close but I think he’s going to lose VA based on what I’m seeing.
Nate Silver was golden it seems. I hate to say I told you so (OK not really) but I think my calls for a post-mortem while Cindy treats me to the Gasthaus were warranted.
Yep. It’s already in the budget, KPOM. I came home from the watch party right after WI was called.
Let me now. I may be out of the country Jan, Feb, and Mar, but we’ll work something out.
We spent all this money to defeat Obama, and all I got was this lousy tshirt. I guess that’s a prediction.
Tommy, next time you run for u.s. senate, put off those stock option deals for a few months, ok?
The lesson for tonight. Stop ignoring fiscal conservative/social liberals like Gary Johnson and me if you want to win in presidential election years.
Listen, Tommy was not a good thing at all.
Lots of parsing that can be done over the next few days, but the bottom line: Status quo. I really do think it’s going to get worse before it gets better, and I also think we’ll be measuring another recession before the end of 2013.
Well Cindy, now Tommy can go make mo money. At least we have that.
It’s a rough night to be a Republican…
Tommy! was a dumb idea. But so were Richard “God intended it”Mourdock and Todd “Legitimate Rape” Akin.
The lesson that the GOP should take is that it is time for a purge. 2012 was a winnable year for them. They lost rather comprehensively. The House is more a function of gerrymandering. They need to be able to give a moral defense of capitalism, rather than try the losing argument that we can accomplish the welfare state’s goals at the state level or by cutting taxes.
The issue I have with the status quo is that it puts the GOP in a real bind. The fiscal cliff is coming. Obama has all the advantages. If nothing happens, everyone’s taxes go up. Now he has a popular mandate for his proposal to extend the “Bush” tax cuts for the middle class.
I won’t pile on but just one thing needs to be said:
There are a lot of people in the national media that owe Nate Silver an apology. It’s not that they disagreed with him, it’s the way that they did it.
It seems to me that support for Thompson and Romney was based more on what would happen if they weren’t elected than actual support of their program…
KPOM – I’ve been begging for a Republican purge since I’ve been blogging. If only.
Still finding it odd that AP and JS haven’t called either race, 65% in and 3+% lead for Repubs in both races. What aren’t they seeing?
Never mind, both took a turn from 65-70%
“There are a lot of people in the national media that owe Nate Silver an apology. It’s not that they disagreed with him, it’s the way that they did it.”
Agreed. Silver nailed it.
Ohio for Obama, according to Fox.
It is done.
And Iowa. Obama is a master campaigner.
There you go. Four more years like the last two…
I would say Reince’s rising star just dropped from the sky. Sad to see we will just have at least another 2 years of gridlock, wonder if Harry Reid will actually propose a budget now.
And in the ironic twist @Tommy has extended his lead against Baldwin with 91% in. AP and JS still haven’t called WI for either race.
Now JS has Obama/Baldwin winning with 104% of the precincts in – what is this Chicago
Rove questioning Fox’s call of OH. Repubs strongholds are still to be counted and with 76% of vote in Romney now only trails by 900+ votes.
I now know what a Gore support must have felt like in 2000.
A GOP purge might be nice, but I have my doubts…
Final electorate D+6.
Shake up RNC. Shake up Senate GOP leadership.
I appreciate Fairlyconservative bloggers, as being very well thought/articulated. (You’re not the Neo-Con, blowhard, hate speech, talk radio folks, that polarize me). You’ll be back sooner than I like, and you’ve got control of the State of Wisconsin. Best, and the Sun comes up tomorrow.
Fox News from 10:25PM to 10:38PM might be the most embarrassing and uncomfortable 24 hour network news footage I’ve seen in my life.
On the positive side Pelosi is toast. Steny Hoyer will be easier to work with.
@J Strupp Fox is justifying their call. I see nothing embarrassing about it. They have a high profile guest who disagrees with them. What are they supposed to do? They are explaining the obvious to a partisan who wants to keep fighting. They are in a more difficult spot than say MSNBC.
So WI sent a liberal to the Senate but gave Walker a friendly state senate back? You guys are weird up there.
They just had Megan Kelly take the walk of shame down the hallway to the “war room” who promptly told her that Rove is nuts.
Either way they called Rove’s bluff. He’s come around now. Anyway why are you watching Fox? Shouldn’t you be watching Maddow right now?
On a positive note maybe the GOP will stop listening to Sarah Palin and Michele Bachmann now. Doing so cost them at least the Senate and possibly the White House.
KPOM Ironically, I started watching Fox at 10:25 and rewinded the DVR to get the time correct.
In other news same sex marriage won its first 2 popular vote victories in ME and MD.
Did Ryan win re-election to Congress?
So much for that 2010 realignment. The GOP is a flipping mess. One need look no further than those Senate races. And I’m not even talking Akin and Donnelly. I’m talking Tammy Baldwin trashing a four-term governor. I’m talking Heidi Heitkamp, who appears set to win a Senate seat in a state that was Romney +19. The GOP is busy being a party that skates to where the puck used to be instead of skating to where the puck is going.
What’s that old adage? The one about three votes establishing a lifetime pattern? The millennials voted for Kerry and now for Obama twice. Just like Reagan (and Bush the elder) helped to claim a whole generation of voters for the GOP, Kerry and Obama have now claimed a generation of voters for the Democrats. And why? Because your party can’t shake its backward positions on gay marriage and women’s health.
But if there’s four words to summarize tonight, it’s this: How about those polls?
You know, the ones all you conservatives spent weeks trashing, pretending that you knew better about models, about voter turnout, about everything. And it turns out their overlord, Nate Silver, is probably going to go 50 of 50 tonight, and hit nearly every margin dead on.
I hate to say I told you so, but I kinda told you so. Data is for analysis. Faith is for churches. Keep your faith out of your data and your analyses will be a lot more accurate.
Yes, R.Super, we agree. In no way is promoting a message that is interpreted as disliking a majority of the voting electorate a good idea. Why do we never learn this?
The Dems will have 56 in the Senate counting Angus King. Considering how many seats they had to defend it was a disaster for the Palin wing. On top of that, according to the NY Times Reid might be emboldened to try to eliminate the filibuster again. The fundies have a lot of explaining to do.
I really need to set up a “like” feature for these comments.
KPOM, you need to email me in the next 24 hours or you won’t be getting a slushy from the new 7-11′s around here.
I looked at the outstanding precincts in ND. Berg is toast. Republicans fail to pickup a seat in ND. Dems hold MO, and ND while picking up IN, MA, and ME. Only R takeover was NE. Unbelievable. NV and MT are still out there, so we are looking at 54-56 Democratic senators.
Praise the Lord, Heller is going to hang on. So 55-45 in the Senate. Not as terrible as what KPom said, but still yucky.
There are easily 6 Dem seats up in 2014 that are winnable (red states like WV, AR, AK, SD, LA plus not-especially-popular figures like Franken and Shaheen). But that requires nominating decent candidates.
I was talking to a dear friend who worked a pair of high-profile Senate races in 2006, including Captain Macaca’s first effort in VA. We were talking about the GOP’s demographic problem and it really came down to one phrase: evolve or die.
People vote short-term issues before long-term issues. Even if the GOP has a winning issue on deficit reduction for instance, young voters aren’t going to give it a look if the GOP is screwing up issues on things that affect them and their friends NOW, like gay marriage and reproductive health. That’s the first problem. For anyone to think people will set those issues aside and unite around fiscal issues is silly. Every moment spent entertaining that possibility is a moment wasted. And young voters, to the chagrin of the senior GOP set, aren’t going to change their minds on those issues as they get older. This isn’t something you age out of; it’s a fundamental change in the construct of our society.
The long-term future of the major party opposite the Democrats is socially center-left and fiscally center-right. Fiscal pragmatism can always be in style, but social conservatism is for the dinosaurs. The problem with making the flip is twofold. First, many of the young voters that have abandoned the GOP because of social issues will be rightfully wary of the GOP if/when it changes its tune. It’s going to take time and action behind the words on the GOP’s part to get those voters back. But secondly, the voters that are going to leave the GOP – evangelicals and hardcore social conservatives – are going to leave right away. Which means things for the party would probably get worse before they get better.
But how many politicians in office do you know who are going to be willing to take losses now for gains later? Most politicians are incapable of looking past the next election.
Similarly, the GOP needs to get its act together on immigration, and fast. Otherwise, in three or four cycles, the GOP will also have permanently lost Texas, Arizona, New Mexico, and Florida. And there’s the die part of evolve or die. Romney had a narrow path forward because of structural problems with these issues. But take those four states away from the GOP and there is precisely NO path forward on the map. And at that point, the GOP will die.
I’ve been lamenting this on my own blog (when I’m actively writing) for nearly seven years. The writing has been on the wall ever since Karl Rove had to resort to the gay marriage amendment card to get Bush over the hump in 2004. He couldn’t build a bigger base, so he just squeezed what he already had even harder. But eight years later, with the pro-gay marriage crowd going 4-for-4 on ballot issues and Tammy Baldwin winning election to the Senate, the anti-gay marriage dog don’t hunt anymore.
And no, I don’t think I’m a genius with some kind of magical insight. I’m just a guy who’s not super ideological and who has always been really good at seeing things for what they are rather than what I want them to be. If the GOP isn’t willing to make the leap – if it’s not going to skate to where the puck is going – the GOP as we know it won’t be here in 20 years. It’ll be a fringe party with bases of support in the Deep South and Mountain West.
Recess Supervisor is largely on target. The most striking takeaway from yesterday is that Obama won ALL the “swing” states except NC (which he just barely lost). He needed only a handful of them, but instead he got NH, FL, VA, OH, WI, IA, CO, NV, and except for FL all by equal to or greater than his national vote margin. Just as Nate Silver modeled it, the electorate was D+6 (just slightly below 2008′s D+8), whites were 72% of the electorate (down from 74% in 2008), and independents split down the middle.
The GOP has GOT to change its tune on social issues. There’s a reason Mark Zuckerberg,Marissa Mayer, Bill Gates, the late Steve Jobs, and many other CEO are Democrats, and its social issues.
Stark opposition to abortion in any circumstance scares off too many women between 18-34. Not all of them, of course, but enough to make a difference. “Legitimate Rape” Akin and “God Intended It” Mourdock are just 2 examples of easy pickings that got away from the GOP. While they alone wouldn’t have made the difference in the Senate, knocking off McCaskill and keeping Lugar would have maintained the status quo (and maybe Olympia Snowe wouldn’t have headed for the exits earlier this year).
Similarly, the tide is turning on same-sex marriage. Up to now it hadn’t won a single popular referendum, even in supposedly liberal California. Yesterday it went 2 for 2. Let’s face it. In 40 years opposition to same-sex marriage will look as silly then as opposition to interracial marriage looks now. In a similar vein, measures to legalize recreational use of marijuana prevailed in Colorado and Washington. The US is still a center-right country on fiscal issues, but it’s increasingly center-left on social issues.
Immigration is a real issue for the GOP, and one of their own making. Protectionism goes against what used to be a core value of the party. “Illegal immigrants” aren’t “stealing” our jobs, and letting in more skilled immigrants from China and India would actually reduce the need for offshoring (though we also need to accept the reality that offshoring is here to stay).
The current apportionment will be in effect for 2016 and 2020. If we start with Romney’s 206 EVs, here are some possibilities for a “Generic Republican” if the party can address its structural shortcomings:
Immigration cost Romney Florida. While retirees from the Northeast tilt the state leftward, it’s the Latino population (less than half of which is Cuban now) that is driving the election. That puts our Generic Republican at 235. With the right candidate, maybe even New Mexico comes into play with another 5 EVs.
Social issues drove New Hampshire and Colorado. “Libertarianism” is strong in both states. Same sex marriage is legal in the Granite State but fiscally it is a conservative oasis. NH and CO would put our Generic Republican at 248.
This is where things get a little tricky. Wisconsin went for Obama by 7 percentage points, and Iowa by 5.5 (both greater than his margin in PA of 4 points). Social issues would narrow the gap in IA somewhat (same sex marriage is also legal there). Obama’s margin in OH was 2 percentage points. Arguably this is where economic issues come into play. Romney didn’t really distinguish himself from Obama. What happened to all the rage about Obamacare? It still isn’t popular, despite Obama’s anecdotes from his victory speech yesterday. Yet all Romney could come up with was that it should have been a state issue, as if 50 Romneycares would offer anything different. Plus, he really didn’t offer a moral defense of capitalism or a viable economic plan. The days where the GOP could win elections on 3 issues (tax cuts, tax cuts, and more tax cuts) while doling out special interest favors are long gone. People see through that. Flip Ohio and either Wisconsin or Iowa, or finally get Pennsylvania competitive again and our Generic Republican can get across the line.
The auto bailout might have been the difference in Ohio, but I also don’t think that there would be much appetite to bail the industry out again should GM and Chrysler (or Ford, for that matter) falter in the future. Romney actually did offer a decent alternative in 2009, but he couldn’t articulate his point and so Obama got to frame the debate under the false pretense that the only alternative to Obama’s bailout was the entire industry (not just GM and Chrysler) disappearing.
So the bottom line is that both those that say that Romney was too conservative, and that he wasn’t conservative enough were right. Our Generic Republican in 2016 or 2020 needs to shift to the left of Romney on social issues and to the right on economic issues.
@Cindy, I send you a message overnight.
Ha Ha, yes, wonderful KPOM! The leftist socialists will never know what hit them. If we pretend to be abortionist murderers who will take away guns and give out birth control to children while smoking marijuana, we can then regain the presidency and spend as much money as we like on the military while lowering taxes.No one will even notice! I like your ideas my friend. I will commence this strategy starting at breakfast.
Anyone know where I can buy marijuana? I think I need to start with that first to pull this off. Are the dispensaries open yet in Colorado?
Wasn’t Tommy! essentially trying to position himself as a fiscal conservative(ish) yet known to be social issues liberal (ish)? That, didn’t seem to work for him. Not much of a magnet for cross over votes from Tammy’s pool.
Tommy’s problems were many, but his downfall was set up by his primary.
If your calling card is that you are the Emperor of Wisconsin Republicans, everyone better be on board with that approach. Because if not, then people will realize you’re not wearing any clothes awfully fast.
Had the GOP given Tommy a free pass in the primary and played to his biggest strength – his legacy – he would’ve won.
Problem is, he had two millionaires that spent much of their time talking about what a fraud he supposedly was. That bruising primary took from Tommy that which was his greatest electoral asset – his aura of inevitability.
So instead of King Tommy riding in to claim his throne, you had a naked old emperor riding in on a horse. And worse than that, he wasn’t even the happy warrior anymore. He had to go negative because he was behind. And nothing is less attractive next to a young-ish female candidate than an old, angry, white male.
If you’re going to run a primary like that, the GOP would’ve been better off with Eric Hovde. At least he’s young and could’ve self funded. Given Obama’s margin, Hovde probably still would’ve lost but he would’ve been better positioned out of the primary.
@RL, Tommy! is a typical RINO. “Conservativish” and “Liberalish” aren’t what I’m talking about. I’m further to the left of Obama on social issues, and further to the right than the Tea Party on fiscal issues. A lot of 18-22 year olds are like that, as well. Obama picked up a lot of their support, but not quite as much as last time. Those 18-22 year olds will be 22-26 year olds in 2016 and 26-30 year olds in 2020. They won’t change their views on social issues, but will be amenable to economic conservatism.
“who will take away guns and give out birth control to children while smoking marijuana”
Again, you don’t know what you are talking about. I don’t care about gun control and I’m not paying for anyone else’s birth control voluntarily. Get an abortion if you want. Just don’t send me the bill. Get married to whomever you want. Just don’t ask me for special treatment. “Tommy!” is not the future of the GOP. Neither are Richard “God Intended It” Mourdock or Todd “Legitimate Rape” Akin. Until the GOP stops thinking in binary terms that anyone who supports abortion rights worships Sandra Fluke, they will continue to get pummeled in presidential years when turnout is higher.
KPOM. I’m understanding that what you are saying is Republicans need to be Libertarians to win against Democrats. And that in 2020 the under 30 masses are going to be predominantly driven by this ideology that is responsive to non-government intervention in all aspects of life.
I see the opposite, but I may be wrong. I think that group, as they age, are attracted to more government involvement in their lives.
@RL, unfortunately yes they may have kids and let the government raise them from day one… that way they can spend more time on real meaningful and rewarding stuff like manis & pedis, vacations, and drinking. Without complications of human bonds. This, my friend, is the new definition of “freedom”… freedom from responsibility, freedom from effort. (Have you read how children are raised in the book Brave New World?)
Yes Yes, very well done KPOM! Now if I and 55 million people can pretend we believe just like you do, we should take the presidency and the Senate! Ha!ha! I’m looking forward to 2012 already. Can you make a Youtube video explaining how not to be worried about gun control? And do you think that Karl Rove will agree with this movement? I hope so as I have given most of my money to American Crossroads Super Pac and also the Faith and Freedom Coalition ( I do not think the FFC will agree with us).
@RL, I’m not suggesting that the GOP become the Libertarian Party (I don’t consider myself a libertarian). However, they do need to move to the left on social issues. That means a big tent philosophy on abortion, similar to the Reagan years. That also means dropping support for DOMA (it might be overturned anyway, but even though Obama didn’t repeal it when he had the chance, if Boehner were to drop his defense of the DOMA before the SCOTUS that would go a long way). And if they truly want to be the party of small government, that means making a moral case for capitalism, rather than simply trying to claim that a smaller government accomplishes the goals of a welfare state more efficiently (essentially Romney and “Tommy!’s” argument). In other words, stop arguing on the Democrats’ terms.
Anyway, it looks like the final House count will be 235-200 GOP. It’s 233-191 right now, but the Democrat leads in 9 of the 11 remaining uncalled races.
Apparently I’m not alone:
Jeff Flake is a fiscally conservative, immigrant-friendly GOPer who avoids the culture wars. He won an open Senate seat by 5% last night.
I’m not that old but”fiscal conservatism” used to mean paying for the gov’t that was provided. Even R. Reagan raised taxes/fees numerous times and still tripled the debt. GW Bush laid bare the true nature of modern fiscal conservatism. He campaigned on a tax cut “to give you back your money”, then the dot com bubble burst and now we needed urgently needed those same tax cuts as stimulus. The intellectual hypocrisy was exposed as nothing more than a tax cut to solve anything and everything deficeits be dammed.
My goodness you all have been busy. I’ll spend some time catching up.
I’m still pouting. It’s getting in the way of getting stuff done today.
Ryan, you aptly not some conservative states where Dem senators should be vulnerable. Except the bench of Republicans in WV and AK is zero. Similar in AR. SD will be a real tough fight for the good guys (Democrats ) and Landrieu’s conservatism and family name will help her. Nothing like McCaskill and Heitcamp and Tester who were supposed to be trounced easily this time around. And Franken and Shaheen is enormously popular not to mention these are maybe the two states (NH and MN) that had the biggest swing towards the Democrats this time around.
My guess is that Dems maintain the senate in 2014 as well.
Other thoughts: Bachmann almost got ousted. Ben Chandler may have lost in KY which means McConnell now has a perfect opponent for 2014. Sen. Chandler, here we come!
Looks like Ron Johnson’s road to reelection in 2016 will not be a cakewalk. Wisconsin goes Dem big time in presidential years.
BTW I predicted every single state as well as every single senate race except NV. I thought Berkeley could pull it out but when you examine the data you find she ran HORRIBLY in Reno. That’s what did her in.
Record number of women in the senate – 20 – mostly Democrats mind you, and still much lower than the 50 it should be at minimum. But we should also have 13 black senators and we don’t, so we know it’s not a representative institution demographically.
I like old-fashioned Republicans I find here, and I would be with you on fiscal conservatism, but for this fascination with being in everybody’s bedrooms. So please, please do purge the party of those fools and get back to being reasonable.
You will have a task ahead, as is wisely said above, in getting back the young voters who only have witnessed the craziness. But you can get them, if you can leash in the legislative crazies who will want to wield power in this state so foolishly again. Do not let them keep cutting public education — not just K12 but higher education, too.
Those potential voters in the hundreds of thousands are in the UW System and the voc tech system now, so stop stripping those down to nothing. And those potential voters will be raising kids in the K12 system soon, so stop bashing their kids’ (some, their future kids’) teachers and schools.
Be smart, please. Take back your party, so we all can bring back the state to the bipartisan, moderate center that worked so well for us. And act fast, as in my family alone, dozens of young voters have left Wisconsin in only the last few years — some of them teachers, some of them working in wind energy or mass transit or other fields that Wisconsin Republicans have rejected but that are building economies of other states.
Please, what works for Wisconsin is two parties with their moderates, their grownups in charge to get the younger voters to stay and help to grow the state. I swear, there’s little time left.
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