Thinking outloud

Quick. Before this martini kicks in.

1) If Obama hadn’t abandoned Tom Barrett during the recall, would we be calling Mr. Barrett Governor?

2) Tammy. Really? How embarrassing.

Dear Mr. Hovde. MOVE HERE. And then run again. You redeemed yourself after the primary. Timing is everything, sir.

Tommy. Can we finally be done. Please?

3) Will status quo get us anywhere?

4) Can we freaking lock down voter identification in WI? Nasty stories are out there.

5) The next big American battle is between Latinos and Blacks. Whites will sit back and watch and wonder what happened.

(Ok, that one may have been post-martini, but don’t call me racist. It just is.)

6) It probably came down to “better the devil you know” for undecided voters.

(That’s the last update. I promise.)

Comments

  1. On the voter ID thing… Was shocked to see signs all over my polling place that said DO NOT PRESENT AN ID

  2. 1. Geez…
    2. Could be worse….Could have been Tommy…Ouch!
    3. No…Thank God…
    4. Meh…
    5. Why would they fight? Aren’t their aims the same?
    6. Agreed.

  3. Going to be very interesting to see what transpires. Surely no mandate here. First President reelected with less electoral votes than the first time and he may only eek out the popular vote. After all this, I don’t know how we get by status quo.

  4. Obama wins VA. FL won’t be called tonight and is leaning Obama.

  5. ” The next big American battle is between Latinos and Blacks.”

    Well Republicans need to get one group or the other… having one 70-30 Dem and the other 97-3 Dem doesn’t seem to be working so well.

    This is why barring some unforeseen scandal or something, it is going to be Rubio in 2016. It has to be. Maybe even a Rubio-Martinez or Rubio-Fortuno ticket.

  6. So the final count will be Obama 50-48 over Romney with 332 EVs to 206.

    As for your questions: 1) No. Walker won because the recall effort was silly and a waste of time and resources, and voters saw through that. However 2014 may be a close race if the Democrats can come up with a credible challenger. 2) Tammy rode in on a wave of Obama support plus a lack of enthusiasm for Tommy. 3) The fiscal cliff is my biggest concern. Doing nothing means that ALL the “Bush” tax cuts expire. Obama has his mandate and is in a stronger position to argue for extending the cuts for those earning less than $200K/$250k for married (and if he has his way with DOMA same-sex married) couples, even though this is by far the most “expensive” portion of the cuts. The GOP is in a bind here. They can’t realistically oppose it or they will take it on the chin in 2014. 4) Don’t know. Inertia is hard to resist. 5) Obama managed to keep them together and even increase African American turnout. Immigration was the key issue here. I don’t know how well a Hillary Clinton or Andrew Cuomo would enthuse the African American vote but they would do well with Latinos until the GOP drops the protectionism. Obama won Asian Americans big, likely also because of immigration. 6) “Undecideds” did break for the incumbent as they did in 2004. That should dispel the myth that undecideds break for the challenger. That was one of Rove’s contentions in the days leading up to the election. It just goes to show that if you are an unpopular incumbent it helps immensely to be running against an uninspiring rich white guy from Massachusetts. Mike Dukakis gets an honorary membership in that club too.

  7. Regarding the “battle” between Latinos and Blacks… I think you mischaracterize that significantly… or I’m not understanding your point.

    What the numbers so far seem to be showing is that Republicans are not doing well with Latinos, and that is the fastest growing population group right now.

    Republicans need to stop pushing ideas and policies that show a generate dislike of Latinos. The Republican’s view on immigration will be the death of them.

  8. Hovde coulda woulda, IMO. Ticks me off…

  9. Honestly, now I know why we search for intelligent life in the universe, because after this election it is apparent that none exists here.

    After repeated warnings, the American people voted for a known Marxist with Marxist ties. His record, actions, and words speak to this very clearly. Now my friends, this is where things will get bad. With a divided government, President Obama will feign cooperation while circumventing constitutional and legislative processes. The Republican U.S. House is for show only and will unfortunately remain powerless.

    On a related note, if you can still afford cable, a new season of Doomsday Preppers starts on November 13th at 8:00 P.M. on the National Geographic Channel.

  10. The Marxist lines don’t have any traction with the public. Yesterday showed that. The issue is that Romney was essentially Obama-lite on fiscal issues, and pretended to be Richard Mourdock-lite on social issues.

    If there’s a single fix that offers a lot of bang for the buck, it’s immigration.

  11. KPOM, comment 7 was great. Thanks for the time to make it.

    I’ll try to articulate my argument re: blacks v. Latinos in a later post, but it has more to do with jockeying for power between the two of them to assert the differences in the two agendas.

    Think what the Tea Party (didn’t) do for GOP. More like that.

  12. This is what I’m seeing (I may be wrong). Voters are not that concerned about the deficit, or whether abortion should be illegal, or that marriage should be between a man and a woman. They want government to help people out even when it’s most of the time. Taxes on “the rich” are fine. Obamacare is fine.

    In other words, little of what the GOP, as a whole, thinks is important. But if the GOP moves left on social issues, how much of their base will they lose?

  13. The Lorax says:

    Talk about tone-deaf white people! Blacks and Latinos infighting? Give me a break, Cindy. I was going to ask if you were blogging with drink in hand but you let the cat out of the bag yourself. Just don’t go down the road of Tommy. Madison’s biggest secret is that Tommy is a real alcoholic.

  14. @Dean, for the past 30 years the fiscal conservatives have had to compromise with the “base” (who doesn’t really share their belief in smaller government) under the premise that if they angered the base, they would leave and they would lose elections. Well, it turns out that even WITH the base they lose elections because it scares enough of everyone else over to the other party.

    At the same time, because of all those compromises, the fiscal conservatives don’t appear all that different from the fiscal liberals. Because of that, they choose politicians based on social issues. On social issues the country has become more center-left.

    By ditching the extreme “base” like Mourdock and Akin, who appeal to a shrinking part of the population, what’s left of the GOP could create a new base by attracting disaffected Democrats.

  15. I guess I hadn’t heard that about Tommy.

    I’ll defend my statement someday. It makes sense to me that there could be a tussle over the premier minority position. Maybe I’m just nuts.

  16. The battle for the ‘preferred minority’ has been quietly (sometimes not so quietly) waging for many years, I’ll be interested to see your take on it.

  17. All this talk about “preferred minorities” is a bit untoward in a post-racial society. That said, the Latino vote is far more recoverable by the GOP. They just need to drop this obsession with illegal immigration (which is nowhere near the issue it is made to be). A voting bloc who is blindly loyal to one party becomes politically irrelevant over time, particularly as it shrinks. A growing voting bloc whose support for any party varies over time is far more relevant.

  18. Oh my gosh. You mean, I’m like, maybe being a little blunt on this subject? *Rolling my eyes at you.*

    Like that last line, though.

  19. KPOM – I agree, it’s not a term I’d prefer to use, but it has been pretty well-coined to this point.

    La Shawn Barber has a pretty interesting take on it here – http://www.nationalcenter.org/P21NVBarberStatus91006.html and yes, I know, she’s very conservative.

    In addition, while there have been strides, I am not so sure we’ve entered into the post-racial society environment we’d all espouse. There’s still a lot of racial preference, discrimination, and prejudice out there.

  20. I will gladly hop into a post-racial society the moment the different groups stop screaming at me to respect their unique “cultural” identities.

  21. Not as Liberal as I Seem says:

    but when we wouldnt be \”post-racial\” if we didnt respect their unique cultural identities :P. I am not talking about thugs either. just saying. im shocked cons are still bewildered at what went wrong. the so-called \”fiscal\” issues are baseless. The deficit will shrink when two unfunded wars are ended… and taxes back to where they should have been. We are the only country in the history of the entire world to start a war (shit, TWO WARS) and not raise taxes. How did we expect to pay for it… oh we didnt. :) taxes are so low now anyways its ridiculous. Comment 12 is right on. No one believes the hubabaloo about Obamacare. 71% of the country wants taxes on the rich. and since its now mostly proven it wont hurt the economy, lets be responsible here. Pretty much in a nutshell, if the GOP doesnt improve their messaging, their entire relevancy will be thrown into the dustbin of history sooner rather than later. The hate is old in our new \”center-left\” social identity. The scare tactics about deficits are transparent now. I could personally believe in the GOPS message , some of the time, if it didnt literally, yes, literally scream \”old, white, entitled to america.\” when that changes, they will be relevant again.

  22. deaninwaukesha says:

    KPOM (#14) I would hope to expand the base as you wrote about. I agree about the nomination of candidates who turn out to be fringe (Can I include Bachmann there?).

  23. Not as Liberal – How delightful of you to grace us with your presence. It’s rare we are able to benefit from someone who happens to have truly ALL of the answers.