Guns and polls

I’m not going to spend a lot of time here today, but two things are important to consider.

1) A child was shot in a Milwaukee park and the Mayor wants longer jail times for the crime. The police chief wants illegally carrying a gun to be a felony. Both Milwaukee leaders insist the Republican-lead Wisconsin government needs to make changes to accommodate the shooting.

Meanwhile, the shooter remains unknown.

No, really, think about that more than once.

2) A poll shows two candidates tied for governor at 46% each. Our state remains as divided as ever at the core. As always, it is the independents in the middle who will carry the most sway. Do not expect this race to pander to either base. The prize is the 8 to 10 percent of independent Wisconsin voters who will choose.

My bet is on Scott Walker to show how that 8 – 10% is better off since he gained office than before. That will keep him elected.


I have something up my sleeve today. I’ll let you in on it later.

**UPDATE** I thought of it earlier, but Nick’s comment reminded me to consider this:

walker numbers
(Snapped from Wikipedia.)

Walker has to snag one more than 50% to win. He’s consistently managed more than that. Burke is a much weaker candidate than Barrett both in experience and name recognition.

I predict a 53% return for Walker in November 2014.


  1. There are two ways to win an election that is so evenly split (according to “conventional wisdom”).

    1. You can sway the independent middle as you suggest.
    2. You can double down on what the base wants in order to get more of them to come to the poll.

    Though not necessarily mutually exclusive… attempts to do #2 often come at a cost to #1. Don’t doubt the GOP’s desire to do #2.

  2. I see your point. But, I kind of think the WisGOP has milked it. Best stick to #1.

    I’m going to update the post with a thought I had earlier today along the same lines as your comment.

  3. This is funny because you act as if people see Scott Walker as a moderate when the reality is he is the most extreme far right governor we have ever had and its not even close. Any attempt to paint himself as a moderate shows how he panders and only cares about his political career and truly stands for nothing.

    The poll is tied, and i think its hilarious watching all of my friends on the right squirm. This is nota race about Mary Burke its about Scott Walker and the failures of four years, as you say “chickens are coming home to roost” are coming home to bite him!

  4. Walker’s polls have mostly been tied prior to both elections.

    I think it’s funny to watch anyone left of center think it will be a different outcome this time.

  5. That sounds great, except its not true. Walker had a solid lead at least in the recalls heading into the actual vote.

    He might win again, but lest be real, the latest poll scared the righties sh%tless and its going to cost a whole heck of alot more money for his owners than they orginally bargained.

    Walker has never run on his rd, so trying to do so now is not working very well.

  6. I disagree about both the polls prior to previous elections and any over-reaction at this point of the campaign. Maybe I’ll dig into it later this week.

    Chill. He’s going to do it again. 🙂

  7. Cindy says “Walker’s polls have mostly been tied prior to both elections…. I think it’s funny to watch anyone left of center think it will be a different outcome this time.” What’s funny is the determination on the right to ignore public sentiment and misread the record. Cindy wants to ignore current polling. To do that, she fabricates a phony reading of polling for earlier races involving Walker: contrary to what Cindy says, Walker was not tied with his opponent in earlier elections–he led by on average 8.7 points in RCP polls prior to the 2010 election.

    Even if her fact was right, that polling has mispredicted Walker’s chances in earlier elections, that’s not grounds for dismissing subsequent polling with a particular candidate. Cindy demonstrates the right’s troubled relationship with evidence.

  8. Roger: You’re full of it. I couldn’t find the RCP polls you referenced in 2010. Wanna pop in a link?

    I did find this article from Politico prior to the recall race to support my argument:

    I’ll look around for others. I could be wrong, but I do have a memory of the tied polling popping up prior to both races.

  9. Ah hah!

    Here’s the RCP list prior to the 2012 recall:

    Average is Walker +6.7 including Barrett up by 3 once, leading again, and a couple of 1 point spreads.

    Now let me see if I can find your +8.7 prior to 2010.

    (You do realize by including the +8.7 prior to 2010 argument, Roger, that you are supporting my 53% win prediction in 2014, right?)

  10. Woo hoo! I found it. 2010 plus 8.7.

    When you scroll down to all polling, you find an April 2010 poll that is +2 for Walker at 46 to 44. That’s somewhat comparable to what is being seen now.

    If you’d like, Roger, I will allow you to argue that Burke is showing two points stronger than Barrett at the same stage in the pre-election polling. 🙂